506
FXUS63 KICT 070731
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
231 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for elevated storms Wednesday morning across southeast
Kansas, some of them could become strong or severe

- Dry and quiet weather to prevail for Thursday thru the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Quiet weather conditions will prevail today with westerly winds and
drier air overspreading the region. Meanwhile current satellite
water vapor imagery shows a deep upper level low pressure system
continuing to spin over the Dakotas. Models show an embedded short
wave rotating around the southern periphery of this low pressure
system across Nebraska and Kansas for late tonight heading into
Wednesday. This upper short wave induces a strengthening low level
jet and rapid moisture transport over eastern Kansas into a decent
700mb baroclinic zone late tonight/Wednesday morning. This
signal combined with steep mid-level lapse rates,decent elevated
CAPE, and favorable 1-6km shear could spark of severe elevated
convection around daybreak Wednesday morning over far southeast
Kansas or locations just to the northeast in western Missouri
which is supported by increasing HREF model probability of 4hr
max Refl paintball. This upper wave will push another frontal
boundary southward across the area on Wednesday where storms
will re-develop ahead of this front which looks to affect areas
mainly east of southeast Kansas.

Dry and quiet weather conditions look to prevail for Thursday into
the weekend as surface high pressure builds over the region. Long
range models are hinting at next chance of storms possibly affecting
the region on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible for
the next few hours at KCNU but after 08Z, VFR conditions will
return to all areas of the region. Winds will calm down
significantly as well. No aviation weather impacts are expected
after 08Z.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ELM