Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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208 FXUS62 KILM 010607 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 207 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will pass across the region later tonight into Wed bringing with it a few showers and isolated thunderstorms into Wednesday. Warm and dry air returns Thursday and Friday before a frontal boundary keeps the late week and weekend unsettled, although no given day a total washout. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A mid-level shortwave trough is evident in moisture channel imagery over the southeast US with its trough axis over the Tennessee Valley and shifting eastward. Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen downstream from this trough centered over the Augusta, GA vicinity and tracking generally ENE. Lift associated with the shortwave will enter the region from the west this evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to western areas. However, with the loss of daytime heating, instability will decrease and this should lead to an overall weakening of activity as it tracks eastward overnight. Where heavier rain soaks the ground, partial clearing may lead to areas of fog or low clouds late tonight, especially in the western zones. With the trough axis shifting overhead by 12Z Wednesday, shower activity should largely come to an end by rush hour. Morning lows in the low-mid 60s are expected, modulated mainly by cloud cover and rainfall. On Wednesday, a surface trough is expected to settle over the area by midday, with W to NW flow near I-95 and SW flow near the coast ahead of the sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a moist airmass should yield weak to moderate instability across the coastal zones inland of the sea breeze and east of the surface trough by early afternoon. Although the location of the shortwave will lead to mid-level subsidence and drying which should limit overall coverage of convection, lift along the sea breeze should yield isolated to perhaps scattered convection during the afternoon. Effective shear magnitudes still appear modest in the 15-25 kt range while DCAPE values may reach up to 1000 J/kg late in the day. Thus, while locally strong wind gusts remain a possibility with the strongest storms, organized convection is not anticipated. High temps should reach the low- mid 80s, warmest around I-95. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Heights recovering Wednesday night following Wednesday`s shortwave, the main mid level ridge once again ready to build overhead. Expect quiet weather through the period with mild nights and an afternoon with highs about a category above climatology. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry and warm weather lasts into Friday as upper ridge still in control, though it will be moving east. A few storms should pop in the Carolinas but remain to our west. Not so on Saturday as some mid level impulses start flowing through the local mid level flow while a surface boundary stalls somewhere from NE NC to Upstate SC. The most widespread and heavy activity will be near the front but we can expect more scattered coverage locally, the least coverage along the immediate coast where marine air could lead to zero coverage. There will be little to push this boundary anywhere on Sunday, which may then offer up similar rain chances/distribution. Heights recover Monday and Tuesday and the precip coverage should wane especially as the front washes out. The previous days convection will have left behind mesoscale boundaries that should still support isolated coverage. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR will be the predominant category for the next 24 hours. Scattered showers and sub 2k ft MVFR ceilings may briefly affect coastal terminals through sunrise. Inland terminals may see some patchy 5SM fog develop through 12Z. Generally light west to southwest winds this morning with south to southeast winds developing at the coast as sea breeze moves inland. Expect scattered convection along the sea breeze 18-00Z. Sea breeze winds will not be as strong as they have been the last few days. Low potential for MVFR fog developing 03-06Z. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR except for MVFR/IFR visibility Thursday morning. IFR/MVFR ceiling and visibility possible Sunday. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday... Southerly flow at 10-15 kts veers to southwesterly tonight as a surface trough approaches with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm moving across the waters late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds back to southerly over the coastal waters as the sea breeze gets going during the day Wednesday and should remain southerly through the daylight hours. S-SSE wind waves in the 2-3 ft range will dominate the wave spectrum, although easterly 1-2 swells at 11 sec or so will remain in play through Wednesday. Wednesday night through Sunday... Wind quite light and variable early in the period, the previous Bermuda high-induced SWrly flow having been disrupted. SE to S winds get re-established by Friday as pressures rise offshore. Small wind waves and negligible swell will keep the dominant seas forecast capped at 2 ft early, opening up to 2-3 later in the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...ABW SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...III MARINE...ILM