Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 230607
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
207 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will move through tonight into Saturday bringing
decent rainfall to the region. After a cool Sunday more seasonable
weather returns Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances return with
the next cold front Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes to the ongoing forecast with this update.
Heaviest precip associated with a warm front is becoming
focused over the Cape Fear region and this may bring another
inch or so over the next 2-3 hours, particularly where heavier
convective elements pass overhead or train over the same area.
This band should move gradually eastward and exit before
daybreak.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Quite the active near term period as low pressure from along the
Gulf Coast region lifts northeastward toward the forecast area
tonight. A little closer to home the old stationary front is lifting
northward in response to the lows progression. Some of the initial
convection has primarily impacted the northern zones thus far, and
there has been a report of pea-sized hail in in the Whiteville area.
While the forecast area is highlighted in general thunder, given a
small swath of 50 kt 925mb winds overnight, can`t entirely rule out
isolated wind damage, especially east of an Andrews to Elizabethtown
line. Rain will be heavy at times given high PWATs pivoting across
the area tonight. Overall, QPF is expected to range from 1 to 3
inches, most of which will fall tonight and this could lead to
localized flooding in the prone/low-lying locations. PWATs will
gradually lower during Saturday. Saturday temperatures will remain
above normal with cold air advection lagging until subsequent
periods. Regarding coastal flooding, will likely reach minor
thresholds for the lower Cape Fear River with high tide this
evening. For the beaches, expect some erosion given the SEly fetch
tonight, however the duration of the fetch should limit the overall
water levels for any beach front coastal flooding this part of the
Carolinas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Though clouds hang on through the first half of Saturday night the
second half will feature rapid clearing from the NW. The dry
advection will be coincident with cold advection such that Sunday`s
highs will struggle to exceed 60 across most of the area. Similarly
Sunday night lows will dip into the low to mid 30s away from the
beaches and there is some potential for light frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The mid level pattern amplifies significantly on Monday with ridging
overhead. At the surface high pressure remains to our north
preventing much of the ongoing WAA above the boundary layer mixing
down so we can only expect a return of seasonable temperatures under
full sunshine. This setup remains on Tuesday though the surface
wedge is eroding. Changes will be happening to our west through with
very broad trough being carved out over most of the nation. This
system drives a front into the area that should bring showers locally
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Flow within the trough splits into two
more separate streams, the southern branch slowing and keeping
Thursday unsettled. The severe threat with the late period system
seems quite diminished now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cig restrictions will remain dominant through the TAF period
with variable vis in showers through much of the remainder of
tonight. LLWS remains a concern for the coastal terminals as a
LLJ lifts through along the warm front; behind the band of
heaviest showers, LLWS will decrease as the LLJ progresses
northeastward. Gradually lifting cigs should be the trend for
Saturday with brief passing showers possible and MVFR cigs
likely to remain until a cold front slides through late in the
day, bringing a wind shift to northerly and increase in winds
and gustiness after dark, along with a return to VFR.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues from Saturday night through
Tuesday with restrictions becoming more likely starting Tuesday
night as another storm system approaches the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Marine conditions will deteriorate through the
rest of the day and tonight as a strong SEly fetch develops across
the adjacent coastal waters. Expecting the strongest winds overnight
with speeds in the 25-30 kt range. As low pressure moves by W
through N of the waters by Saturday morning winds will veer and
diminish then increase again from a Nly direction by very late
Saturday afternoon. Seas will be greatest overnight with the peak
winds in the SEly fetch, then a range will open up as the winds turn
with the approaching cold front. Coverage of showers and tstms will
increase across the waters tonight, then diminish in areal extent
during Saturday.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Hoisted a Gale Watch for the
start of the period as post-frontal wind regime should strengthen
especially as the cooler air pours in and lapse rates steepen. There
will be minor improvement later Sunday but only such that Gales can
be lowered to Small Craft Advisory. This headline will last a few
days as the amplified pattern stalls keeping the local waters
pinched between high pressure wedge and the occluded storm off the
coast.  Later Tuesday night into Wednesday is when features start to
progress again and we should see conditions drop below thresholds.
There will also be considerable veering as the wedge weakens but
also the next cold front will be approaching from the west.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ILM


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