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000
FXUS62 KILM 171042
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
642 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures above normal will continue through Friday. A few
light showers are possible tonight into Thursday. Rain chances
will increase on Friday as a cold front moves across the area.
The front stalls in the area for the weekend, maintaining
elevated rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With front staying north of the area, WAA continues around offshore
high pressure today. Thickening high clouds will keep the
temperatures a few degrees lower than the past two days, with highs
around 85F. If there is enough sunshine in the afternoon, some areas
may get a few degrees warmer. A decent trough is progged to move
across the area tonight, though with only marginal moisture to work
with not expecting more than scattered light showers and only a
couple hundredths of QPF (if any). Have capped POPs at 20% for
tonight. Abundant clouds and mixed BL will keep overnight temps in
the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Weak front moves across the area Thu morning though midday but then
is quickly masked by the developing sea breeze. The "front" passes
dry with minimal cloud cover given how dry the airmass is. Weak
shortwave ridge and transient surface high move over the area late
Thu and Thu night, but these depart for points east by Fri morning.
A stronger cold front moves into the area on Fri along with
increasing moisture. Diurnal instability and frontal convergence
generate afternoon and evening convection. Environment is not one
suggestive of strong or severe storms and typical summertime showers
and thunderstorms are more likely. Convection will wane in the
evening with any storms pushing offshore before midnight.
Temperatures will run 5-10 degrees above climo in the short
term.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Front moves into the region Sat morning then stalls as it ends up
parallel to the flow aloft. The arrival of the front signals a
change to a period of unsettled weather as the southern stream
becomes active. Deep moisture increases Sat into Sun with a series
of shortwaves affecting the area starting Sat night and continuing
through Mon and possibly Mon night. The stalled surface boundary
coupled with dynamics aloft and falling heights will lead to
increasing rain chances early next week. Isolated convection is
possible Sat afternoon/evening with the front in the area, but best
chances appear to be Sun into Mon. This is when the moisture really
increases and a reinforcing shortwave arrives. How quickly the
surface low developing off the moves away from the area Mon will
depend on how much the southern stream amplifies. More amplification
would lead to a slower solution with rain lingering in the area
longer on Mon. Forecast area dries out Tue as the shortwave exits,
leaving a flat pattern aloft and high pressure at the surface. Highs
near to above climo Sat are dropped well below climo Sun/Mon by
cloud, rain and increased northerly flow. Highs remain below climo
Tue. Lows will run near to above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated fog early this morning is dissipating quickly with
sunrise. VFR to prevail for upcoming TAF period through tonight.
High clouds will thicken during the day. Southwest winds
prevail around offshore high pressure with southerly sea breeze
in the afternoon at coastal sites. Winds remain in the 5-10 kt
range after sunset as a trough approaches from the west, and may
see a few light showers move across the area tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
Southwest winds 10-15 kts continue to dominant the local
coastal waters around offshore high pressure. Gusts up to 20 kts
this afternoon and evening. Seas 2-3 ft through tonight,
continued mix of SSW wind wave and SE swell. May see a few light
showers move across the waters tonight.

Thursday through Sunday:
Southwest flow 10-15 kt continues Thu and Fri before front
moving over the waters leads to a highly variable wind direction
on Sat. Gradient is weak with speeds under 10 kt. Northeast
flow becomes established by Sun with gradient tightening up as
low pressure starts to develop along the stalled front.
Northeast winds in excess of 15 kt develop early Sun. Seas 2-3
ft, a mix of a dominant southerly wind wave and a weaker
southeast swell, build to 3-4 ft Sun with isolated 5 ft possible
Sun night.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...VAO
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...VAO