Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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635 FXUS61 KILN 151533 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1133 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Exiting low pressure and an upper level trough today will give way to building high pressure overnight and Thursday, bringing a period of dry weather. This ridge will exit quickly on Thursday with scattered showers expected to enter overnight, prompted by shortwave energy aloft. Friday will see a better chance of and more widespread shower activity. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... Second morning update bumped temps in the next few hours towards latest blend of current forecast and hourly guidance that had a good take on current readings. Blended pops to lean heavily on 14Z run of CONSshort, which seems to have a fair representation on future placement on rain, and the best initial set of conditions of any model by far. Lowered thunder chances again, and feel that what few convective elements that are currently beginning south of ILN will be the only potential for this activity. Even with this, earlier showers have all evolved into a stratus rainfall in relatively short order. Don`t think that the low clouds and very moist boundary will permit for the forecast CAPE values to be realized without any significant breaks in the cloud cover, which really looks to be confined to the far southeastern CWA. Even with this being said, was not comfortable to peel back shower potential in any significant manner given the disparity on model consensus today in forecast precip fields amongst other parameters. As surface low pressure low makes its way east, coverage and thunderstorm threat are expected to increase by early afternoon as instability rises. Heavy downpours will be possible under slow moving moisture-laden cells forming in a thermodynamically favorable environment that features tall skinny CAPE. A drying trend may be observed this afternoon over northwest counties located farther from the low center. Temperatures may rise from the low 60s this morning to the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon though sunshine will be scarce given the precip and heavy cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Surface low pressure will accelerate to the southeast tonight, while a ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the west. The ridge will be positioned overhead on Thursday. This scenario will bring an end to showers tonight, with dry weather continuing through Thursday. After temperatures fall to the 50s tonight under gradually decreasing cloud cover, highs should reach the mid and upper 70s Thursday thanks to warm advection and insolation. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 00Z guidance continues to show spread in handling a trough coming out of the central US which leads to some uncertainty, especially in timing of onset and departure of precipitation. But certainly the trough will lead to unsettled conditions for the end of the week as it tracks across the region. Depending on how extensive the clouds and precipitation are during the daytime periods, temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal. But overnight readings will remain mild. Ridging will build in starting on Sunday. This will lead to even warmer temperatures for the latter part of the period. There are varying solutions on when short wave energy may ride over the top the ridge which could bring a chance of storms. At this point have leaned more towards Tuesday, but plenty of uncertainty as is often the case that far out in time. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Aviation continues to be impacted by low pressure tracking slowly across Kentucky. With near surface air approaching saturation, ceilings as low as IFR are forecast this morning. There will be showers, though timing and location are uncertain due to scattered nature. For all sites, went with diurnally influenced coverage of showers and VCTS during afternoon peak instability. Improvement to VFR should occur this afternoon with increased mixing. As showers diminish tonight, MVFR is likely again as ceilings redevelop in lingering low level moisture. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are possible with thunderstorms Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Franks SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...Coniglio