Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 241612
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1212 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer today with highs near 50.

- Widespread rain Monday night into Tuesday. Gusty winds also
possible Tuesday.

- Dry and mild Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Surface high shifts toward Quebec today allowing return flow/WAA to
ramp up ahead of the next deep trough presently over the western
CONUS. Surface winds remain SE through the day and a cold start will
stifle highs a bit, particularly in our NE. 925mb temps climb to
around 3C in most of our area, supporting highs near 50F. Expect
partly sunny skies with some mid and high clouds streaming off
approaching low pressure system. Lows tonight will be a full 10
degrees warmer given strong surface winds, WAA, and increasing
clouds. Locations outside of our far NE will remain above freezing.
No precip is expected through tonight given very dry low levels with
best forcing and moisture advection still well to our west.

Strong southerly flow and theta-e advection really increase on Mon.
Highs will surge well into the 60s. Precip chances still look to
remain just to our west during the day as deep upper low pinwheels a
bit and makes only slow eastward progress. Best precip chances for
our area will be late Mon night as primary midlevel vort max finally
pushes into Lake MI and nose of 60+ kt LLJ focuses in our area.
Impressive moisture advection noted with PW values well over an
inch. Good forcing for ascent and near neutral stability will
support a period of widespread moderate rain 06-12Z. Anticipate
around a half inch during this period with precip amounts limited
somewhat by quickly-advancing midlevel dry slot that will yield a
break in steady precip late Tue morning. Occluded front then passes
Tue afternoon with another round of quick-hitting showers. Added a
thunder mention given some nonzero instability in the latest
guidance. Severe risk still appears low due to limited low level
moisture and marginal lapse rates but some strong winds are
possible with any convection that manages to develop as outlined
in the latest SWODY3.

Precip exits quickly Tue evening and Wed-Fri still appear dry. Minor
CAA Wed will keep highs in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s but WAA
gradually returns Thu-Fri with highs back near 60. Some precip is
possible next weekend though models are very inconsistent regarding
details at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Gusty southeast winds will be the story through this TAF cycle with
northern IN wedged between low pressure organizing over the central
US and a ~1040 mb high working east through southern Quebec. Low
level jet will strengthen in between tonight with LLWS conditions
likely met. Dry/VFR otherwise with deeper moisture and associated
rain not arriving until Monday night.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Steinwedel


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