248
FXUS64 KJAN 020903
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
403 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Today and Tonight: Continued warmer than normal through
tonight despite an increase in cloud over and rain chances.

Early morning surface analysis still had a ridge nosing into our CWA
from the east. This was resulting in a southeast to south wind that
was continuing to increase low level moisture back across our
region. This moisture increase has led to the development of patchy
dense fog and stratus across our southeast that is expected to
increase in coverage across our south this morning. A Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect until 9AM for the area along and south of a
line from Laurel to Brookhaven where visibilities less than a
quarter mile are likely.  Regional radars were already lit up this
morning with an area of convection over east Texas. A split flow
regime will continue with the southern branch across the Gulf coast
states. A disturbance within the southern branch will help drive
this convection east today into our CWA. Model consensus suggests
the convection will develop into a bowing line as it moves into our
CWA during the heat of the day. The primary threat will be damaging
wind gusts but hail to quarter size and a brief tornado our two will
also be possible. Although isolated severe storms will be possible
as far north as Cleveland the main area looks to be along and south
of Interstate 20 and mainly during the afternoon into early evening.
Locally heavy rainfall may also lead to some runoff issues in the
typically poor drainage areas. The severe storm threat will end
early this evening but rain chances will continue through the night
as a cold front approaches from the northwest. /22/

Friday through next Thursday...

By Friday morning, rain chances look to stick around as a weak
shortwave allows a boundary to hang up across central MS just north
of a high pressure in the off of the MS coast. This will keep higher
rain chances in the forecast through late Friday afternoon.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across central
and northern Mississippi on Friday. Rain chances are expected to
decrease by the late evening into the overnight period. By the
weekend, low level southerly flow paired with a series of week
shortwaves moving through the region will keep scattered to isolated
rain chances in the forecast through Monday. Highs will remain in
the lower to middle 80s through the weekend.

By Monday, surface ridging will amplify over the southeast CONUS,
bringing drier and warmer air into the ArkLaMiss. Southwest flow
will keep the moisture at bay going into the new work week.
Additionally, increasing heights will bring our first dose of summer-
like temperatures into the region. Highs are expected to climb into
the upper 80s to low 90s by mid-week. The next chance of rain looks
to be north of the hwy 82 corridor by late week, but guidance is
a bit uncertain on specifics as of now. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions wl prevail until 10Z. After 10Z IFR/LIFR conditions
wl be psbl in the south until after 14Z. After 14Z conditions wl
improve to VFR and VFR conditions wl prevail through 18Z. After
18Z TSRA are expected to spread into the sw and affect HEZ. This
activity will spread into cntrl and se MS TAF sites by 00Z Fri
before dissipating. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  68  80  64 /  50  50  70  30
Meridian      88  66  84  64 /  10  30  50  40
Vicksburg     83  68  79  65 /  60  50  70  30
Hattiesburg   88  67  84  65 /  30  20  30  20
Natchez       82  67  78  64 /  70  40  70  20
Greenville    84  69  78  66 /  40  80  80  40
Greenwood     87  68  79  65 /  30  70  80  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ062>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/AJ/22