Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
018 FXUS62 KKEY 111844 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 244 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 GOES-16 visible satellite imagery certainly depicts a summertime pattern. A broken cumulus cloud line extends along the entire island chain, but has not been able to produce any shower activity this afternoon. Outside of this cloud line, skies are mostly sunny across the nearshore and offshore coastal waters. Temperatures are in the upper 80s at most island communities, with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. A rather routine forecast for the next seven days expected. A frontal boundary draped over South Florida will continue to slowly sag southward this weekend before stalling and continue to weaken. The resulting collapsed flow will support a broken cloud line yet again tomorrow, but forecast soundings suggest scant boundary layer moisture will keep the Florida Key dry through the weekend. For next week, global ensemble guidance suggests a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico extending to the Florida Keys will be a bit stronger than initially anticipated in earlier forecast iterations. This suggests the Florida Keys should remain largely dry for next week. With that said, subtle moisture undulations will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters at times. Given this scenario, it seems prudent to nudge towards climatological measurable rain and thunder chances for the extended forecast for now (10-20%). The main story for next week will be the at times oppressive heat owed to the aforementioned ridge. Highs may approach the lower 90s by the end of next week. Combined with dew points in the upper 70s, heat indices will likely easily top 100F for several hours each day. Summer is here. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 From synopsis, winds will continue to clock around the compass over the weekend, as this front approaches and dissipates in the vicinity of the Florida Keys on Sunday. Another high pressure area will slide over the western North Atlantic, resulting in gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes for much of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through tomorrow afternoon. West southwest surface winds will gradually veer to the northwest to north overnight and into tomorrow, with speeds remaining between 5 and 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1883, the daily record rainfall of 4.85" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 79 89 79 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 88 79 88 80 / 0 0 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest