123
FXUS64 KLCH 082335
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
635 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A very warm and humid day has unfolded. Most areas have topped out
in the upper 80s to nearly 90F; ironically the water content in
the air (high humidity) has kept temps from hitting 90 area wide.
This hasn`t stopped heat indices from soaring - areas like Jasper
and DeRidder have HI`s over 100F this afternoon. It`s official...
the first real taste of Summer is here.

The feed of warm, humid air will continue through tomorrow ahead
of an approaching cold front boundary. Temps in the daytime will
top out similar to day - mid to upper 80s with some areas seeing
90 degrees; humidity pushing the heat index into the upper 90s to
isolated lower 100s.

Late tomorrow (Thursday) the cold front approaches. This boundary
will be the focus for development of showers and thunderstorms
across north Louisiana and east Texas. Storm motion indicates most
shower and thunderstorm will skirt across north central Louisiana
in the late evening or early morning hours of Friday. However, in
the event storms take on a more southern track, there does remain
the chance of storms as far south as I-10 (the chance of this
solution is much lower). With storms, the primary concerns are
damaging winds and hail up to an inch. To account for this
concern, the Storms Prediction Center has placed all of central
Louisiana and down to the I-10 corridor in a Slight Risk (2 out of
5) for severe weather.

Another concern is for the chance of flooding rains with any
convection. Areas north of I-10 have been included in a Marginal
Risk of Excessive Rainfall (1 out of 4). In the event of training
rainfall or heavy downpours, there could be some flash flood
risk. Most convection should be pretty progressive, so the chance
of this is low, but not zero. Those concerned parties should
continue to monitor forecast trends in coming forecast cycles
tonight and tomorrow.

Much cooler and drier conditions to follow on Friday in the wake
of the cold front passage.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The long-term portion of the forecast period begins on Saturday with
the area in a nwrly flow aloft behind a departing ern CONUS trof
while sfc high pressure extending across the Plains yields a nerly
low-level flow...with the combo of these features maintaining a dry
and pleasant day/night across the forecast area. However this looks
to be short-lived as by Sunday, a digging shortwave is progged to
cut off over the srn Rockies, while the sfc high pushes ewd and
ushers in a moister srly flow off the Gulf. With forecast soundings
indicating mean RH values rising to around 90 percent and PWAT
values climbing to around 1.9 inches (well above the 90th percentile
per SPC sounding climo), scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop and linger through Monday
night before the shortwave ejects ewd, dragging a cold front into
the area. With the potential for potentially heavy rains during this
period, WPC is highlighting mainly our TX zones in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall on Sunday (the remainder of the area is generally
in a marginal risk).

By Tuesday, the sfc boundary is progged to wash out over the region,
with return flow off the Gulf re-establishing itself quickly. Along
with weak/nil capping and another weak disturbance looking to scoot
past the area, small POPs linger in the forecast through Wednesday.

With cool (IE seasonal) temps expected to begin the long-term after
Friday`s frontal passage, expect to see a warming trend by late in
the period with temps jumping back to the mid/upper 80s for highs
with mins back to pushing 70 degrees.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MVFR conditions will continue as warm moist air from the gulf
continues to move onshore. These ceilings will remain stubbornly
low for the rest of the TAF period with periods of VFR near 19Z
tomorrow. Fog will also be a concern tonight as winds being to
lessen across the region. Visibility is expected to drop below 3
miles but not much lower than that. After sunrise conditions will
rapidly improve.

Winds will remain onshore for the TAF period but will slowly
weaken.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 3 feet
will prevail through Thursday. Areas of patchy to isolated dense
fog will be possible tonight through Thursday morning. Forecast
confidence is not high enough to warrant a Marine Fog Advisory
tonight, although if one becomes necessary it will be issued.

A cold front will push through the coastal waters
Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday and Saturday.
Onshore flow becomes reestablished Sunday as high pressure slides
east of the area. Precipitation chances will also increase again
Sunday and Monday as a series of upper level disturbance moves
across the area.

66/11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  92  66  83 /  10  20  50   0
LCH  75  88  71  87 /   0  10  10  10
LFT  78  91  74  88 /  10  10  20  10
BPT  76  88  71  89 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14