Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS64 KLIX 230829
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
329 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Axis of upper shortwave is just to our east this morning, with
ridging moving out of the Rockies into the Plains States. A new
trough moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning. At the
surface, low pressure extended from South Carolina into southern
Alabama, with high pressure centered over the Canadian Prairie
Provinces. Locally, under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures ranged
from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

With the upper shortwave and ridging continuing to move eastward
today, skies should become mostly sunny, allowing temperatures to
warm into the 70s. Will trend toward the warmer end of high
temperature guidance today in the 70s. May see some high clouds
arrive for tonight and Sunday, but the airmass below about 20,000
feet is very dry, so no rain will be mentioned. Overall,
temperature guidance looks good for tonight and Sunday, but will
favor warmer highs and cooler lows where differences are noted.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Main concerns for the forecast package occur Monday into Tuesday
with the potential for multiple hazards.

Upper ridging will shift east of the area Sunday night and Monday
as a deep trough moves out of the Rockies into the Plains states.
Surface low pressure will be developing over western Kansas Sunday
evening, and the pressure gradient between that low and high
pressure along the east coast will bring a gradual increase in
surface winds, with most guidance indicating sustained winds in
the 20 to 25 mph range, and even a little higher in some
locations on Monday. That will put a significant potential for
Wind Advisories in play for much of the CWA Monday and Monday
night. With the wind direction out of the southeast, conditions
become favorable for coastal flooding. In this case, astronomical
tides are in the neap portion of the cycle, negating some, but not
all of the concerns. Probabilistic surge guidance shows at least
some potential for minor coastal flooding on susceptible southeast
facing exposures, and we`ll continue to assess the potential in
later forecast packages.

Surface dew points that will be near 50 Sunday midday will
increase into the mid and upper 60s on Monday. Precipitable water
values will increase to about 1.5 inches. CAPE values should get
close to 1000 J/kg Monday afternoon and Monday night, with shear
and helicity values being much more than sufficient for severe
weather. While the best forcing is expected to be north of our
area, there`s certainly more than enough evidence to support a
Slight Risk of severe weather Monday night, with all modes of
severe weather possible. Though not explicitly outlooked, the
threat of severe weather could linger over eastern portions of the
area into Tuesday morning. Locally heavy rain could also be a
concern. Areal average rainfall is expected to be 1 to 2 inches,
especially north of the Interstate 10 corridor. As long as we
don`t get training of echoes, we should be able to handle that
much rainfall.

Beyond mid-morning Tuesday, conditions should begin to improve
with precipitation shifting to the east of the area. However, it
may take until Wednesday night or Thursday for the upper trough
axis to get east of the area. That leaves the potential for a good
bit of cloud cover to remain across the area, especially during
the daytime hours. It currently appears that most or all of next
weekend will remain free of significant weather impacts.

Decent agreement in forecast temperatures between the GFS and
ECMWF operational runs for the long term portion of the forecast,
so any adjustments to the NBM deterministic are likely to be
minor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A mixture of VFR to MVFR prevails currently at the terminals,
dependent on the low cloud deck sagging southward over LA. Some
ceilings could get as low to right at IFR ceilings. Otherwise,
gusty winds will increase as the day begins and last throughout
the day with gusts in excess of 30kt possible. Winds will calm
down and ceilings clear up late in the forecast period. -BL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Current Small Craft Advisory headlines are sufficient and no
adjustments necessary in the short term with hazardous conditions
slowly subsiding overnight tonight. That respite, unfortunately,
will be short-lived, as the pressure gradient will tighten again
on Monday. Small Craft Advisories look to be almost certain for
the waters Monday and Monday night. Gale Watches/Warnings may be
necessary, especially during the afternoon and overnight before
conditions relax during the day Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  42  71  56 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  75  49  76  62 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  75  47  73  59 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  73  54  73  64 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  73  47  70  60 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  75  45  73  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530-
     532-534-536-538-550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ555-557-575-
     577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532-
     534-536-538-550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ557-575-577.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RW


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.