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000
FXUS65 KLKN 150929
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
229 AM PDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Showers linger across northeastern Nevada today.
Winds will be breezy this afternoon and evening, strongest across
portions of Elko county. Dry Tuesday on through the week with
temperatures trending warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. An upper level low over
Nevada early this morning will bring light rain and snow to
portions of northeastern and central NV this morning, though not
expecting any accumulations on roadways. The low will exit east
into UT later this morning, with shower activity across NV
diminishing. The main concern for this afternoon will be gusty
northwesterly winds across the CWA. Strongest winds will be over
the eastern half of Elko county where a wind advisory remains in
effect from 11am this morning through 8pm this evening.
Temperatures will begin to trend warmer today. Dry tonight and
on Tuesday with lighter winds across the CWA.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday

Transitory upper level short wave ridges will be the main story
for first half of the long term forecast period. As each ridge
axis moves through the upper level flow will be mainly out of the
NW. This will keep conditions dry and allow for a slow warm-up for
temperatures. By Friday evening a broad northern stream long wave
trough will drop south into the northern plains as a weak
southern stream upper low moves on shore over southern California,
this may allow a weak back door front to move south into Nevada
and serve as a focus for a few isolated showers Saturday and
Sunday afternoons before the front dissipates over central Nevada.
Model precipitation probabilities still look rather low at this
time with shower chances at 15% to 25% with most locations staying
dry. The main impact of this front will be to flatten the ridging
changing the upper flow to more of a westerly direction an ending
the slow warming temperature trend. After Sunday model agreement
like the weakening front dissipates as the GFS and ECMWF disagree
as to the upper pattern with the former favoring broad troughing
across the NW US, while the later favors upper ridging rebuilding
across the west coast. Temperatures and Winds: Slow warming of
temperatures will be under way, as high pressure builds across the
Silver State. Highs will warm into the upper 60s to low 80s by
Saturday afternoon plateauing through Monday as the weak front
enters the picture. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend
with lows warming slowly into the lower 40s to low 50s by Saturday
morning and remaining in this range through the start of the work
week. Winds relax as pressure gradient eases under the influence
of upper level ridging, winds will be generally out of the W to NW
but speeds will be 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...A few rain and snow showers are expected tonight
across portions of the state. Diminihsing showers and improving
CIGs are expected through Monday morning across the I-80
corridor. Winds will increase from the west particularly at KEKO
beginning around 1700Z Monday with gusts approaching 30 knots. A
few light snow showers are expected at KELY Monday morning
resulting in occasional MVFR conditions. Gusty northwest winds at
KTPH are expected for much of Monday before diminishing Monday
night. Conditions overall improve Monday night into Tuesday as the
storm system exits the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks and rivers across northern and
central Nevada have elevated flows due to a combination of recent
precipitation, snowmelt, or recent warmth. Temperatures will be
much cooler today, though elevated flows will continue on some
waterways. Light showers today should have only minor impacts to
flows. Dry conditions are expected Tuesday through the upcoming
weekend, however temperatures will be trending warmer all week
which will again help to accelerate the melting of remaining mid
and high elevation snowpack.

The Bruneau River is currently in minor flood stage and expected
to remain so today.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is currently in minor flood
stage and expected to oscillate in or just below flood stage
today.

Wildhorse Dam is currently at action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the coming
days.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is now in action stage and
expected to gradually rise today, but remain below minor flood
stage. A new flood advisory was issued early this morning for the
Owyhee near Wildhorse.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently just below
action stage, and expected to rise up into action stage early this
morning, remaining in action stage but below minor flood stage
for the remainder of the week.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
Northern Elko County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range...
South Central Elko County...Southeastern Elko County.

&&

$$

96/98/93