966
FXUS64 KLZK 130749
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
249 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows a well defined
H500 circulation across central KS. This feature will continue to
rotate its way slowly eastward and largely influence weather
conditions across the state and region through the period.

Throughout the day and into the overnight hours, areas of showers
and thunderstorms will periodically move across the state.
Confidence remains limited on overall coverage, but several rounds
of showers and thunderstorms remain likely. Through mid-morning,
POPs are higher across NW parts of the forecast area as a
persistent line of thunderstorms across central OK looks to
continue to move eastward before turning more northeast and moving
across NW Arkansas.

Additional activity is expected to develop as pieces of energy
aloft traverse the mid-level SW flow in place over the area.
Cloud cover and occasional precip will limit daytime heating with
most of the state seeing highs at or below 80 F. Overall severe
threat remains limited and general consensus is that an isolated
severe storm is possible, but widespread severe weather is not
expected. Additionally, widespread heavy rain that could lead to
flash flooding is not expected but a few pockets of heavy
rainfall could occur.

Precip will linger into Tuesday as the sfc and H500 lows struggle
to clear the area. Highest rain chances will be across eastern
parts of the state. Cooler temperatures are expected across the
northwest half of Arkansas on Tuesday afternoon where winds will
be out of the NW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

WEDNESDAY:

An upper lvl ridge builds over the Natural State during the day on
Wednesday as a sfc high pressure center meanders across the ARK-LA-
TEX region of the CONUS providing most of the state one day of
relief from showers and thunderstorms. Expect dry conditions for
most of the state as Arkansas will be perfectly placed between two
low pressure systems: one departing the region well to the east of
the CWA and another moving toward the state from the west.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY:

An upper lvl closed low develops over the Four Corner region of the
CONUS with multiple SWTs that move within the flow pattern toward
the Natural State and the initial closed low develops into a
pronounced trof that nears Arkansas by Friday. At the sfc, a warm
front positions across the Gulf Coast region of the CONUS from Texas
to Florida draped right along the coastline. Isentropic lift will
allow for moisture to be advected into the state via the Gulf of
Mexico in tandem with a cold front approaching the state from the
northwest on Thursday. Into Friday, the sfc low pressure center and
attendant cold front extending southward and eastward extending warm
front will be positioned across southern Arkansas. A conditional
severe weather threat is not completely out of the question on
Thursday into Friday which will be highly dependent on the position
of the warm front lifting into the state along with the location of
the surface low pressure center. Expect periods of showers and
thunderstorms to impact the state with again a conditional threat
for severe weather as mentioned above; however, it remains too far
in advance to decipher any specifics regarding the severe weather
possibility.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY:

An upper lvl ridge nears the state from the west as the positively
tilted trof axis becomes almost zonally tilted over the Deep South
region of the CONUS. The sfc cold front will become a stationary
boundary as stalls near the Gulf Coast allowing for POP chances to
remain in the forecast over the weekend, but rainfall amounts do not
look impressive at the current time and confidence remains low
overall that this sfc feature will stall where currently forecast.
Expect showers with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm or
two to remain possible. The positioning of these sfc features will
be the key to exactly how much influence of rain and storms the CWA
will see. At the moment, latest guidance doesn`t call for a washout,
but does paint the picture of much of the state seeing some
precipitation not amounting to much total rainfall.

Over the long-term forecast period low and high temperatures will
both be near to just above average compared to climatological
normals for this time of the year, especially above normal into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Clouds will continue thickening and lowering into the morning
hours, with VFR conditions becoming MVFR/IFR in most areas. Rain
and a few rumbles of thunder will be focused over southern
Arkansas, and any showers farther north should be isolated. Patchy
fog is also expected. On Monday, after hit/miss showers in the
morning, VFR conditions will gradually return during the
afternoon. The wind will be south/southeast at 4 to 8 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  62  77  59 /  60  60  70   0
Camden AR         78  62  81  58 /  40  30  10   0
Harrison AR       74  57  71  54 /  80  40  60   0
Hot Springs AR    78  61  79  58 /  50  50  20   0
Little Rock   AR  79  64  80  61 /  60  50  40   0
Monticello AR     79  66  81  62 /  50  50  20   0
Mount Ida AR      77  60  79  57 /  60  40  20   0
Mountain Home AR  74  58  73  55 /  70  50  70   0
Newport AR        76  64  77  60 /  60  60  70   0
Pine Bluff AR     78  65  80  61 /  60  50  30   0
Russellville AR   78  61  77  57 /  60  40  40   0
Searcy AR         77  62  77  58 /  60  60  60   0
Stuttgart AR      77  65  78  62 /  60  60  50   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67