Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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240 FXUS64 KMAF 042013 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 313 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Severe weather today is the main weather concern in the short term. A cold front currently located near the I-20 corridor is moving south with cool northeasterly winds moving in behind. Convergence along the front will be a source for thunderstorm initiation and these storms will move northeast into the cooler air behind the front. This will cause these storms to become elevated and greatly diminish the tornado threat though very large and damaging hail will still be possible and a significant threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for southeastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin. South of the front, warm and moist air will destabilize due to an approaching disturbance and daytime heating and strong directional shear will provide a favorable environment for severe and tornadic thunderstorms. A Tornado Watch is in effect for the Trans Pecos and eastern Big Bend. Storms from both watch areas are expected to merge into a line later this evening changing the severe threat to a straight line wind and large hail threat as it exits the Permian Basin to the east. Cool air settling in behind the front will make for a beautiful Sunday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s for most areas. The only 90s will be along the Rio Grande. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Quiet but warm weather returns to the forecast for the start of the new week. As a strong upper-low begins to open and move into the northern Great Plains, taking on a negative tilt, this acts to push the dryline to the east as zonal flow develops. This zonal flow is expected to be maintained through the first half of the week through at least Wednesday. What this translate to is temperatures mainly in the 90s, with 80s in the higher elevations and 100s in the Big Bend each day. Dry conditions with a fair bit of sunshine for all. This begins to change as a conglomeration of shortwaves congeals into a broad trough extending from the Great Lakes to the central Rockies. The developing pattern with shortwaves rounding its base aide in pushing a cold front through the region by late week. Slightly cooler temperatures begin to stream into the northern part of the area by Thursday with portions of the Permian Basin remaining more in the 80s. The cold front is then expected to clear the region by Friday ushering in mostly 80s and even some 70s across the area. Beyond this point, the forecast becomes chaotic and messy. At this time, an upper low appears to develop near the Great Salt Lake. This puts our region back under southwest flow aloft with lee troughing allowing moisture to finally slide back west. Whether this will coincide with any disturbances or bring enough moisture for appreciable rainfall remains to be seen. Other than this hope by next weekend we are dry overall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A cold front is moving through the area shifting winds around from the northeast. The front will cause SHRA/TS to develop 18-21Z directly affecting MAF/FST and close enough to the remaining terminals to affect local flying. TS moves east of the terminals near 00Z. MVFR CIGs will develop after 06Z and remain through the remainder of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and higher humidities over the weekend reducing the fire weather threat. Warmer temperatures and stronger winds increase the fire threat in southeastern New Mexico and the upper Trans Pecos Monday and Tuesday. Possible rainfall Saturday will determine fine fuel moisture levels so a better idea for the potential for critical fire conditions will be known for the next forecast. Elevated to near critical conditions continue through Thursday before some improvement is seen Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 59 78 65 90 / 70 10 10 0 Carlsbad 58 88 58 88 / 40 10 0 0 Dryden 65 82 67 94 / 60 50 0 0 Fort Stockton 62 85 63 94 / 60 30 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 55 81 58 78 / 20 0 0 0 Hobbs 56 80 59 87 / 40 10 10 0 Marfa 51 85 51 88 / 20 10 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 60 79 65 91 / 50 10 0 0 Odessa 61 80 66 91 / 50 10 0 0 Wink 60 86 63 93 / 40 20 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...10