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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250844
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
344 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A dynamic weather system will impact the Great Plains today into
tonight. A pronounced shortwave trough is beginning to make landfall
over Southern California and the Baja Peninsula currently. This
trough takes on a negative tilt and lifts into the Four Corners late
this afternoon and evening, continuing into the northern Great
Plains tonight. At the surface, lee troughing is increasing as a low
pressure begins to coalesce over eastern Colorado. Low-level
moisture continues to increase ahead of the trough this morning into
the afternoon. A dryline slowly sharpens from the central Permian
Basin into the Lower Trans Pecos in response to the developing low
pressure to our north. Temperatures remain very warm despite the
approaching trough with the 80s and 90s continuing for most once
again. Behind the dryline, strong southwest winds are expected to
develop as a potent, 50-70 kt, 500 mb southwesterly jet streak
rounds the base of the approaching trough. High winds are likely
across the Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains with advisory
level winds further east across southeast New Mexico. Very dry
conditions combine with these unfavorable winds, leading to potent
fire weather conditions across the western half of the region this
afternoon, see the Fire Weather Discussion below for further details.

The thunderstorm threat this afternoon appears to be a bit
complicated at this juncture. MLCINH along the dryline starts strong
early this afternoon as steep lapse rates, 7-8 C/Km, spread over the
area. With that being said, MLCINH should gradually weaken late this
afternoon with the aide of the sharpening dryline, daytime heating,
and some cooling aloft. Whether this is going to be enough to result
in convective initiation remains uncertain. Ample cirrus may limit
daytime heating somewhat, keeping things capped as shown by most Hi-
Res model guidance. A couple models do try to break out an isolated
thunderstorm or two along the dryline late this afternoon though.
With the off chance that a thunderstorm does break the through the
cap, have added isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon along
and east of the dryline. Should anything develop and become rooted
near the surface, moderate instability and wind shear would support
rotating updrafts supportive of large hail and damaging winds.

As dusk approaches and night falls, the maturing low pressure over
eastern Colorado begins to translate eastward. Mid-level height
falls overspread the southern Great Plains while at the surface the
Pacific front begins to overtake the now retreating dryline. Model
guidance is in general consensus that the combination of these
factors should lead to convective initiation. Initially, a few
discrete/semi-discrete supercells may develop posing a threat of not
only large hail and damaging winds but a tornado or two as well. Low-
level hodographs begin to enlarge as the low-level jet strengths
early tonight. This window remains short-lived as SBCINH should
inhibit truly surface based storms in time. At the same time,
continued thunderstorm develop along the eastward progressing
Pacific front/dryline composite gradually causes thunderstorms to
become more linear. This linear mode may pose a continued large hail
and damaging wind risk into the night before everything exits to the
east a little after midnight. After this, things become much quieter.

Clearing skies behind the departing shortwave trough overnight
results in a little more radiational cooling though this may be
slowed by initially elevated winds. Nonetheless, most locations fall
into the 50s by Friday morning with any 60s for lows remaining to
the far east. Friday sees the very warm temperatures continue
despite the post frontal airmass due to downsloping westerly winds
on the backside of the system. Widespread 80s and 90s are in store
for almost all under mostly sunny skies. It will remain dry across
the area with breezy westerly winds so fire weather will once again
be of concern across most of our region. Friday will be the lull
before our next weather system hot on the heels of today`s system.

-Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The long term forecast will be front-loaded with earth, wind, and
fire, and hopefully back-loaded with a little relief.

Friday night, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico will be under
southwest flow aloft in between systems, with a secondary upper
trough digging to near the Four Corners by 12Z Saturday.  NAM pretty
much keeps a mountain wave signature to varying degrees over the
Guadalupes its whole run, and we`ve issued a long-fused high wind
watch to cover this Friday night through Saturday evening.  This
will catch the peak late Saturday afternoon/early evening, but may
have to be extended through Sunday afternoon on the backside of the
trough.  These winds will be complimented by a healthy does of BLDU,
and will exacerbate critical fire weather conditions through the
evening.  See Fire Weather Discussion below for more details.

In the east, a 40+kt LLJ will push the dryline back into the area,
w/the Pac front meeting up with it around 12Z.  This will open a
brief window for some convection over the Western Low Rolling Plains
before the dryline is driven east of the area.  Despite the Pac
front, downslope warming will negate cooling, and highs Saturday
afternoon should be about the same as Friday...right around normal.
Wind warnings/advisories will be needed for a good chunk of the CWA,
mainly northwest.  Saturday night, w/the dryline lying along the
eastern tier of counties, showers will be possible there.

Sunday, as cooler air advects in from the W-NW temperatures will
drop 2-3F from Saturday, making Sunday the coolest day this
forecast, w/highs in the 70s and 80s most locations.

Monday/Tuesday, temperatures recover under zonal flow aloft,
w/Tuesday the warmest day this forecast as highs plateau ~ 5-7F
above normal.

Tuesday, an upper trough will approach the region, transitioning
zonal flow aloft to southwest, and sending shortwaves into the area.
This will result in a chance of convection beginning Tuesday night,
and peaking Wednesday afternoon as the trough arrives.  Stay
tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions for all begin the period. Southeasterly winds are
expected overnight at all terminals with elevated wind speeds for
eastern terminals. MVFR ceilings are expected to move into MAF
then HOB later this morning before eroding away later that
morning. Winds generally veer to southwesterly and increase in
speed through the afternoon. The strongest wind speeds are
expected across the western terminals with gusts above 30 kts or
higher. At this time, blowing dust is not anticipated to impact
airport operations but this may need to be monitored.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible
through Sunday, mainly west of the Pecos.

Today, increasing 20-ft winds will sharpen up a dryline over the
Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos.  West of this feature, single-digit
RH is anticipated.  While ERCs remain 75th percentile or lower,
critical RH will combine w/increased 20-ft winds to yield max RFTIs
of widespread 7-8, and even some 9 in the mix.  Main concerns are
increased 20-ft winds, which will promote rapid fire growth/spread.

Friday, 20-ft winds will come down a little between systems.  This
was looking like an elevated fire wx day compared to today and
Saturday...but models bring the 500mb jet in directly from the west
to intersect the LLTR, and we can`t ignore this.  Max RFTI will be a
little lower and not as widespread, but 20-ft winds will be high
enough to combine with widespread single-digit min RH and increasing
ERCs to warrant a Fire Weather Watch.  A few counties in the
northeast CWA are probably not threatened, but for brevity and to
avoid confusion and a complicated product, we`ve shotgunned the
whole FWA.

Saturday looks critical as well, as a 90+kt 500mb jet arrives over
Southeast New Mexico.  ERCs continue increasing, as well as 20-ft
winds w/the arrival of the jet.  Widespread max RFTIs will range
from 5-6 in the north, where 20-ft winds will be highest, to 7-8,
and even some 9, south of I-10.

Finally, on Sunday, 20-ft winds will begin diminishing, but will
still combine with widespread critical RH to produce at least
elevated fire weather conditions over much of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               89  58  88  58 /  20  40   0  10
Carlsbad                 91  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   89  61  95  62 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            93  58  90  55 /  10  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           81  51  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    87  53  82  54 /   0  10   0   0
Marfa                    85  46  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     88  58  86  57 /  10  20   0  10
Odessa                   88  58  85  58 /  10  20   0  10
Wink                     93  56  88  55 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 11 PM
     CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster
     County-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 1
     AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for Eastern Culberson County-
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster County-Chinati
     Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector-
     Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Howard-Loving-Lower
     Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-
     Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Terrell-
     Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT
     tonight for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
     County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight
     for Central Lea County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea
     County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...91