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000
FXUS64 KMEG 230425
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1125 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

We should remain clear and dry for at least the next 24 hours
across all of the Midsouth with a few showers possible tomorrow
night. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
Thursday and continuing through the weekend. Temperatures will
generally trend warmer although clouds and precipitation may keep
us a degree or two cooler Thursday. Friday through the weekend,
expect high temperatures in the low to middle 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Weak northwest flow will return to the Midsouth over the next
24-36 hours. A subtle shortwave will track through the mean flow
late tomorrow(Tuesday) and tomorrow night resulting in scattered
rain showers across northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and
northwest Tennessee. A weak cold front associated with this
feature will move across the region tomorrow night. Ahead of the
front, southwest wind will increase to 10-20mph across most of the
Midsouth with up to 25mph possible in far northeast Arkansas and
the Missouri Bootheel. NBM probabilistic guidance has 20-40%
chance of sustained winds at or above 25 mph tomorrow afternoon
for this area. A small Wind Advisory may be needed. Winds will
diminish after sunset.

The cold front should move into central Mississippi and Alabama
by Midday Wednesday. The front will move into a drier airmass as
it pushes south, so rainfall will likely weaken and diminish in
coverage the farther south it gets. As a result, most rain should
end early Wednesday. Any point in the Midsouth will be lucky to
receive 0.05 inches of rainfall and no thunderstorms are expected.

Temperatures are expected to be just a couple of degrees cooler
Thursday, mainly due to clouds and precipitation. Thursday
afternoon showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage as
a ridge shifts across the Mississippi River Valley setting up
strong southwest flow across the middle and upper Mississippi
River Valley.

Winds will strengthen once again Friday as a low deepens in and
Plains. Friday and Saturday the NBM probabilistic guidance has 15
to 30% chance of sustained winds at or above 25 mph in the Delta
regions south of Memphis. Farther north across northeast Arkansas
and the Missouri Bootheel probabilistic guidance increases to 45
to 75 percent of sustained winds of 25 mph or greater. Once again,
Wind Advisories may be needed.

High temperatures Friday through the weekend will be seasonably
warm, in the low to middle 80s, with increasing chances of showers
and thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms do not look likely.
Guidance is pointing towards a more potent storm system early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR through the period as high pressure begins to push southeast.
South/southwest winds will gust up to 25 kts tomorrow ahead of a
cold frontal movement tomorrow afternoon into evening. Clouds
will also begin to build in around sunset along this same front.
VCSH looks to prevail at MEM shortly after midnight tomorrow.
-SHRA at MEM is possible in this same timeframe though confidence
 was not high enough to include in TAF at this time.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AEH