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000
FXUS62 KMFL 181638
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1238 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The western Atlantic surface high continues to play the dominate
roll in stable atmospheric conditions to wrap up the remainder of
the week. As the high shifts eastward, the winds will veer and
allow for a more distinct southeastward wind flow. With this
assistance, it will allow for more tropical moisture and an
increase in warm air. The warming trend will continue tomorrow
afternoon with highs rising into the mid to upper 80s along the
coasts with the potential for low 90s in the far SW interior. Far
interior RH values will drop into the mid to upper 30%, but weak
wind speeds should help keep the conditions from red flag/fire wx
concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Heading into the weekend, the mid-level high begins
to break down as a southern stream trough emerges across the
northern Gulf of Mexico Saturday into Sunday. While the trough
axis will not extend all the way south into southern Florida, it
will pinch the high aloft southward a bit. A reinforcing trough
emerges Monday into Tuesday which will push the high aloft into
the Caribbean.

As the trough enters the Atlantic off the Carolinas,
a surface low may develop and push the surface boundary southward
into the peninsula of Florida with the potential for convection.
Rain chances will be highest over northeastern portions of the
forecast area, mainly around the Palm Beaches, but will still be
relatively modest. To close out the extended period, the surface
boundary could pass south into the Florida Straits allowing for a
period of northerly wind flow to return with some drier and
slightly cooler air. Still some uncertainty that the boundary will
be able to clear through but the possibility remains high enough
to mention.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites. Breezy E/SE winds
continue this afternoon and early evening hours with some gusts
reaching 15 KT. A gulf breeze may develop around 18Z at KAPF
bringing SW winds until 00Z. Light and variable winds at all sites
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The winds will remain southeasterly and weaken to wrap up the
week as the surface high continues to shift eastward. Seas will
generally remain 2 feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A moderate rip current threat will linger along the Atlantic
beaches today with a diminishing trend to close out the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  85  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     67  87  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        70  87  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        70  85  69  86 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  71  84  70  85 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  70  85  70  86 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   70  88  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  67  86  68  87 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       69  86  69  86 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           69  86  69  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Simmons
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...Simmons