Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231848
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
248 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low and cold front will impact the area this weekend.
High pressure builds in early next week. Another coastal low is
possible mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Sat...Initial sfc low is now lifting along the
Mid- Atlantic coast with cold front pushing through the coastal
plain. The front will continue to push through eastern NC this
afternoon and early evening. A secondary low will strengthen
along the front offshore tonight and Sunday, keeping a very
strong gradient across the area. Wind Advisories continue for
the immediate coast with northerly gusts 45-50 mph, peaking late
tonight into Sunday. Scattered light showers ongoing along and
ahead of the front this afternoon, will grad shift off the coast
over the next few hours with cooler and drier air filtering
into the area. Lows will fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sat...Sfc low will strengthen off the coast Sunday
as it becomes vert stacked, as high pressure ridges in from the
north. Despite the mostly sunny skies, expect a much cooler and
brisk Sunday as CAA continues. Low level thickness values
support highs in the 50s, though highs may not make it out of
the upper 40s for the northern Outer Banks. Wind Advisories
continue for the immediate coast with NNE wind gusts 45-50 mph.
Away from the immediate coast, it will be breezy during this
time as well, but winds should remain below advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM Sat...Canadian high pressure extends southward
over the eastern seaboard Sunday night and remains in control
into Tuesday. This weekend`s low will linger offshore, keeping
elevated northerly winds in place along the Outer Banks into
early next week and promoting ongoing coastal flooding and beach
hazard concerns for areas particularly north of Cape Hatteras -
see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for details.

Next round of inclement weather will be mid to late week.
Deepening low pressure over the central plains in response to a
negatively tilted shortwave trough will drag a slow-moving cold
front towards the Carolinas, eventually stalling over the area.
The frontal boundary will likely have an increase of clouds and
some modest shower activity although best lift will be displaced
well to our west. Greater concern is a second s/w trough
forecast to pivot across the Gulf states and become negatively
tilted, which will drive robust cyclogenesis along the surface
boundary.

The devil remains in the details. Ensemble guidance continues to
trend towards the stalled front/coastal low solution (although
a few members still advertise a clean frontal passage), but
considerable spread in timing and track of the system remain.
Still, another round of heavy rainfall, strong winds and coastal
impacts are possible by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 250 PM Sat...Mixed bag of conditions currently across the
terminals ranging from VFR to IFR. Sct light showers should
push off the coast by late afternoon and early this evening.
Sub-VFR conditions likely to persist through late afternoon and
early evening, grad improving from west to east behind the
front. Gusty northerly winds will develop behind the front
peaking tonight into Sunday, with gusts 25-30 kt. This could
result in crosswind impacts for EWN runway Sunday.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through Tuesday
as high pressure builds in from the north, but strong northerly
winds will persist particularly for coastal locales.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 250 PM Sat...Very dangerous marine conditions will
continue for an extended period of time. Latest obs show S-SW
winds 5-15 kt with seas 10-15 ft. Brief lull in winds this
afternoon, before strong northerly winds develop this evening
and tonight. Initial sfc low is now lifting along the Mid-
Atlantic coast this afternoon with cold front pushing through
coastal plain. Secondary low will strengthen along the front
offshore tonight and Sunday, keeping a very strong gradient
across the waters. Gale force winds expected across the waters,
sounds and much of the inland rivers through Sunday...with seas
cont at 10-17 ft north of Lookout and 7-12 ft south.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 355 AM Sat...Dangerous marine conditions will continue
through the long term period. Canadian high pressure builds over
the Carolinas from the north, but with low pressure continuing
to meander offshore strong northeasterly flow will be slow to
ease. Strongest winds will be Sunday night with gusts up to 40
kt especially across portions of Raleigh Bay, but 25+ kt wind
gusts will plague area waters through Monday night.

The persistent northerly fetch will keep seas dangerously high,
particularly north of Cape Hatteras. Swell of 10-15 ft with
periods of 13-14 seconds will persist through Tuesday night
here, while across Raleigh Bay, seas will be closer to 8-12
feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 250 PM Sat...Coastal Flood Warnings (2-4 ft agl) remain
in effect though late Monday night for ocean side locations
north of Cape Hatteras and southern portions of the Pamlico
Sound, Core Sound and lower Neuse River. A Coastal Flood
Advisory (1-2 ft agl) remains in effect for areas adj to the
southern Albemarle Sound and Alligator Rvr for the northerly
surge tonight into Monday.

Dropped CF Advisories for the initial SE wind threat. Now the
threat shifts to the N/NE surge beginning this evening and
peaking into Sunday. Winds will shift to the N tonight through
tomorrow into the 25-35 kt range with higher gusts, with the
coastal flood threat shifting to soundside areas adjacent to the
S/E Pamlico Sound and oceanside areas from Duck to Cape
Lookout. NCDOT now reporting that NC 12 on the northern end of
Ocracoke Island is closed due to ocean overwash and dangerous
driving conditions. Hatteras to Ocracoke ferry service has been
suspended until further notice. Other oceanside areas with
vulnerable dune structure may also be impacted and impassable at
times, esp around high tide.

A High Surf Advisory is in effect for all coastal zones, grad
improving south of Lookout this evening. Resultant ocean
overwash across Ocracoke Island will likely cause flooding
across Highway 12 through the weekend. Advisory continues for
areas north of Cape Hatteras through Wednesday morning as
persistent northerly fetch funnels large long-period swell along
the beaches with surf zone seas reaching up to 10-15 feet.

Although details are murkier, another coastal low could impact
the area at the end of the work week with another round of
strong winds and coastal flooding possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     NCZ045>047.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ047-196-203>205.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ094-194-196.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195-199.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ196-204.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ131-230.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ136.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ137.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ231.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/MS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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