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000
FXUS63 KMKX 120933
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
433 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds are expected today, with gales over
  the open waters.

- Above normal temps expected for the weekend into early next
  week.

- Keeping an eye on thunderstorm potential next Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 433 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Today through Saturday night:

The main story for southern WI today is the wind. Gusty
northwest winds will develop as soon as we start mixing this
morning due to low pressure deepening over far southern Ontario.
The wind increase is a little delayed from the forecast, but
confidence in developing is high. Gusts up to 35 mph are likely
from late morning through early afternoon. Winds will quickly
diminish this evening as we decouple and the pressure gradient
relaxes.

High pressure will wedge into southern WI tonight into Saturday
morning. Weak low pressure developing over the Northern Plains
in response to a shortwave will turn winds to southerly by
Saturday afternoon. Much warmer air will lift into the area and
hour highs should be right around 70. There is a 30 percent
chance of exceeding 70 west of Madison and Janesville. Our
forecast falls within the 50th to 75th percentile of forecast
models. Steady SSW winds will persist through Saturday night.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 433 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Sunday through Thursday:

Sunday will be warmer, closer to 75, with the chance of
reaching 70 or higher over 90 percent for inland areas. Winds
will be lighter and westerly in the morning, then become
northerly in the afternoon. A back door cold front will race
down Lake Michigan and drop lakeshore temperatures into the 40s
by late afternoon. The cooler air will quickly push inland
Sunday evening, with lows in the 40s.

Thankfully, southerly winds will kick back in as stronger low
pressure develops in the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Highs
Monday will be back into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread into southern
WI along the warm front Monday night. The closed upper low will
take on a negative tilt and swing into the Upper Midwest Tuesday
afternoon. Southern WI should end up within the warm sector.
Modest CAPE up to 1500j/kg and high shear around 40 kt support
the chance for severe storms. The forecast will change between
now and then, so keep up with the latest each day.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 433 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The very light rain and areas of drizzle will make its way out
of southern WI during the early morning hours. Look for
northwest winds to quickly increase this morning. Gusts up to 35
kt are possible midday. Winds will diminish quickly this evening
and become southerly by Saturday afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail through the period.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 433 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Low pressure will deepen over far southern Ontario this morning.
Gusty northwest winds will quickly become gales. Highest winds
up to 40 kt are expected over the far northern and eastern
portions of Lake Michigan late this morning into the early
afternoon. There is a possibility that gales could hang on a few
hours longer into the evening for the far north, but overall
windswill quickly diminish tonight. Look for winds to switch
to the south Saturday afternoon.

A fairly abrupt wind shift to the NNE is expected Sunday
afternoon. Waves and wind gusts may approach hazardous small
craft conditions for the southern nearshore areas.

Southerly gales are possible Tuesday night as low pressure
approaches from the Plains.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 7 PM
     Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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