National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMOB 191749
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1249 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION..

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR conditions are currently in place across the region at
issuance time. Expect these conditions to prevail through the
evening hours, with light southerly winds. Low stratus is expected
to develop around midnight tonight and spread across the area
during the overnight hours. Ceilings are anticipated to drop to
IFR or LIFR tonight. Patchy fog may also develop late tonight
reducing visibilities to MVFR or lower. Fog may briefly become
dense a little before sunrise in a few spots. Fog should dissipate
and low stratus should begin to lift by the middle to latter part
of the morning. /96



&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Main forecast concern through early this weekend continues to be low
ceilings and patchy fog each morning given the light winds and ample
moisture. Low ceilings continue to plague the area as of 08z, which
aligns with the current SREF guidance. Visibilities continue to
bounce around, but have generally remained above 1sm overnight (thus
far). A stratus deck moving in from the west may help to keep
visibilities from tanking over the coming hours. That said, we will
continue to monitor fog trends in satellite imagery, observations,
and area webcams throughout the pre-dawn hours and will issue an
advisory if necessary. Expect a similar pattern for Friday night
into early Saturday with ceilings dropping around midnight or so.

Most of the area remains dry today with the only chance for rain
remaining north of the Highway 84 corridor this afternoon. Winds
remain southwesterly through the day as the surface ridge keeps a
firm grip over the eastern Gulf. HREF guidance indicates that PWATs
will gradually increase to 1.4-1.5 inches later today as moisture
steadily slides into the area from the west-southwest. A cold front
slides toward the area throughout the day, likely approaching our
northernmost counties late tonight. The front will likely pump the
breaks as it moves into our CWA given the zonal flow aloft and weak
surface ridging sitting to our south over the eastern Gulf. While we
can`t rule out a few showers or potentially a storm across our
northernmost counties this afternoon ahead of the front, we`re not
seeing as much ascent aloft (in comparison to past model runs) to
kick off much convection today. However, a few subtle shortwaves
move into the region by late Saturday morning, which will help to
kick off scattered showers and storms, especially by the afternoon
hours, as the front drifts south and deeper into the area. While
there isn`t much shear in place ahead of the front, there`s ample
instability for the storms to tap into on Saturday afternoon. Can`t
rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds in the afternoon hours.

Beach Note: Risk of rip currents remains MODERATE through this
evening and drops to LOW this weekend. The risk of rip currents
increases to a MODERATE again by Tuesday. 07/mb

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Zonal flow will quickly become northwesterly in the wake
of the subtle shortwave that will bring us rain during the day
Sunday. Sunday will be the only chance for rain next week as a
very weak and subtle subtropical impulse will move across the
westerly flow. This will lead to a rather small window of ascent
over the area along the slowly sagging surface boundary draped
across the area. Expect overrunning rain and maybe some thunder
across the area Sunday morning into the early afternoon. The
surface cold front will move offshore leading to drier conditions
returning. Dry northwesterly flow will temporarily work its way
into the area monday leading to a cooler and drier forecast
through the middle of the week. Behind the front temperatures will
drop into the 70s for highs and 40s for lows before steadily
increasing back into the 80s for highs and 60s for lows by
Thursday. 03/13



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  84  59  68  47  73  49  77 /   0  20  30  80  10   0   0   0
Pensacola   67  82  64  71  51  73  54  74 /   0  10  10  70  10   0   0   0
Destin      67  80  66  73  54  74  57  74 /   0  10  10  60  20   0   0   0
Evergreen   64  85  57  66  44  73  45  79 /   0  30  30  80  10   0   0   0
Waynesboro  65  80  51  60  43  70  44  79 /  10  40  60  80   0   0   0   0
Camden      64  81  52  60  43  69  44  77 /  20  30  50  80   0   0   0   0
Crestview   63  87  60  73  46  75  47  78 /   0  20  10  70  10   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob