Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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521 FXUS64 KMOB 181002 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 502 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 501 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 More heavy rain and severe storms are possible today as a weak surface boundary continues to slowly sink southward. South of this boundary a very unstable atmosphere remains with MLCAPE values around 2500 J/Kg and deep layer shear values around 55 knots. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with the stronger storms. A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out especially in the vicinity of a enhanced low-level shear near the surface boundary. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Saturday morning. While the bulk of the heavier rain will move east of the area this morning, additional development this afternoon and evening is forecast as the upper low moves across the Tennessee Valley. Dry conditions will follow late tonight through Sunday as the upper level shortwave over the eastern Conus moves off, allowing a building upper ridge over the Southern Plains to shift east to over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. A High rip current risk remains through the weekend. High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s (3 to 6 degrees below normal) along and southeast of I-65, and from 80 to 85 degrees to the northeast of I-65 where rain chances are lower. Lows tonight will be in the mid/upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast, or about 3 to 6 degrees above normal. High temperatures will rebound to near to above seasonal norms on Sunday with the increasing upper subsidence, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. /22 && .SHORT and LONG TERM... (Monday Through Friday) Issued at 501 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Much of the work week remains dry in the wake of this weekend`s storms. Weak ridging over the Southern Plains begins to nudge east toward the region early in the work week. Subtle shortwaves slide around the ridge as the trough dives deeper into the Atlantic early next week, but these shortwaves will only act to briefly increase cloud cover. The ridge aloft begins to flatten toward the Gulf as we head into Thursday and Friday as a shortwave pivots into the MidSouth and Southeast. A surface high remains draped down through our region through Thursday, but may begin to relegate back into the western Atlantic by Friday. That surface high`s grasp over the local area should keep the showers and storms (associated with the aforementioned shortwave) further to our north on Thursday. However, the influence of the surface high may not be strong enough to protect the local area on Friday, thus showers and storms are possible in the afternoon hours. Beach Note: Rip current risk remains MODERATE on Monday and eventually falls to a LOW risk Tuesday through Friday. RCMOS guidance does indicate a very brief bump to MODERATE is possible Tuesday afternoon for the beaches in northwest Florida. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 501 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 A light to moderate southwesterly to westerly flow prevails through tonight, becoming light and variable early next week. A light southerly to southeasterly flow is established Tuesday afternoon and continues through Wednesday night. /22 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 81 67 88 67 89 68 86 68 / 90 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 78 69 86 69 86 70 84 70 / 100 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 79 70 85 71 85 71 84 72 / 90 30 10 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 81 64 87 64 89 63 89 63 / 80 40 10 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 84 63 87 64 89 65 90 65 / 50 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 82 63 85 64 86 64 87 64 / 60 40 10 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 79 65 88 64 89 63 88 63 / 90 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob