Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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268 AWUS01 KWNH 051226 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-051800- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0227...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 825 AM EDT Sun May 05 2024 Corrected for Corrected Discussion Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma through Central Arkansas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 051156Z - 051800Z SUMMARY...Flash flooding likely as storms developing out ahead of an advancing MCS moving across eastern Oklahoma and southern Arkansas move into the hydrologically sensitive Ozarks. DISCUSSION...Storms that have developed across Oklahoma and eastern Arkansas have been producing localized rainfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour. Instability is between 500 and 1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE based on SPC Mesoanalysis, and PWATs are around 1.75 inches. The abundant moisture and decent instability will support additional thunderstorm development through midday across northeast Oklahoma and much of Arkansas. The leading edge of the MCS, as well as any pre-MCS convection will lift northward with time. The MCS is wrapping around a center point near southeast Oklahoma in response to a northward moving shortwave in the upper levels. This will keep convection ongoing and slow-moving to nearly stationary across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Meanwhile, storms developing on the south and east side of the line will move faster to the north, which would decrease flash flooding potential...except those storms will have a greater tap of moisture and instability, which will allow them to grow stronger than the convection to their west. Soils across much of the area are nearly saturated. Heavier convection will have the potential to produce rates to 2.5 inches per hour, however even in areas that don`t see the heavier convection, steady rainfall through the morning falling on nearly saturated soils will result in most of the rainfall converting to runoff. This will result in widely scattered instances of flash flooding, with the potential in both hydrologically sensitive areas of terrain and urban areas for isolated instances of significant/considerable flash flooding. Wegman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37169592 37049493 36819374 36549306 36399223 35939152 34919135 34319178 33839227 33229275 33229322 33639393 34949495 36109606 36559633