Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
115 FNUS73 KMPX 301627 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Long Lake...FWS National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1127 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on April 30. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...For the Long Lake Rx Burn, showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota through early this afternoon. The ongoing storms near Aberdeen will not impact Stevens County, but as the line continues to fill in to the south, expect chances to ramp up quickly after 1-2pm. I cannot guarantee that you`ll get a full two hour window at this point in time, but it will be awfully close. Winds will turn more southerly as the showers and storm approach with gusts increasing to around 25 MPH. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Rain showers and thunderstorms likely early in the afternoon, then showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Temperature.........54 at ignition...Max 61. RH..................77 percent at ignition...Min 67 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 13 mph at ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 13 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair /26700 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good /56100 knot-ft/. Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2400 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 26 mph. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P Sky cover.......MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC Weather cov..... CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC Temp............54 57 58 58 58 58 58 57 55 53 52 51 RH..............77 67 69 72 77 80 80 86 90 89 86 80 20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S W W W 20 FT wind spd..13 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 12 14 16 17 20 FT wind gust.21 21 22 22 23 22 21 16 18 21 24 26 Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 1.7 1.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S SW W W W Transp wind spd.18 20 24 26 18 22 16 16 14 16 23 25 Haines index....5 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Temperature.........Min 41. RH..................Max 90 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 12 mph shifting to the west 14 to 21 mph in the late evening and overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (16400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (6500 knot-ft) late in the night. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast around 16 mph shifting to the west 14 to 23 mph early in the evening, then increasing to 17 to 25 mph late in the evening. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .WEDNESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Temperature.........Max 66. RH..................Min 32 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 15 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (95500 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to good (49200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (106400 knot-ft) in the afternoon late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 14 to 23 mph shifting to the southwest around 13 mph late in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Dye Requested by...Millette Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2412807.0/MPX .DELDT 04/30/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov