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000
FXUS64 KOHX 201323
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
823 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A much heavier than expected band of showers and isolated
thunderstorms developed overnight. The west to east band formed
on the north side of a surface frontal zone, generally along the
850mb cold front with help from a weak shortwave. These features
along with the weakening showers will move southeast of our area
by midday. Our far southern counties may have a few lingering
sprinkles on and off through the afternoon. Skies will vary
considerably across the area from mainly sunny northwest to near
overcast southeast. Varying mixes of clouds and sun will be seen
in between. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than normal
today with highs in the 60s. A steady north breeze will continue
10-15mph.

Another wave of light showers is expected late tonight into Sunday
morning, mainly south of I-40. Cooling north winds will continue
through the rest of the weekend with lows tonight in the 40s and
cooler highs for Sunday in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The forecast was recently updated for the latest radar, temp, and
sky trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

This weekend, temperatures will stay cool as surface high
pressure currently centered over Montana travels southward into
the southern Great Plains, keeping surface winds northerly over
Middle TN. Aloft, weak embedded disturbances may result in some
very light rain at times, mainly for areas south of I-40. Most
will probably only notice increased cloud cover with the passage
of these weak disturbances.

By Sunday night, clouds will clear out of the area. Combined with
light winds, low temperatures are expected to fall into the 30`s
which may lead to patchy frost across much of the area as we head
into Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Temperatures will warm next week, and highs are expected to be
back into the 70`s by Tuesday. Overall, most of next week actually
looks to be fairly quiet. Tuesday night does feature an upper-
level trough sending a weak cold front through the area. This may
result in a few showers Tuesday night and into Wednesday, this
time mainly for areas north of I-40. But the trough looks to be
too far north for anything significant, and any precipitation
should be light at less than a tenth of an inch.

For the next chance of rain and thunderstorms, we have to look
ahead to next weekend as a large upper-level low digs into the
southwestern US, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft and
moisture advection across Middle TN. Some model solutions do show
an embedded shortwave ahead of the larger low that may result in
a more active weekend. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Light rain will affect BNA/MQY/CSV/SRB at the beginning of the TAF
period, but dry conditions are expected at airports from 14Z
through the rest of today with VFR cigs. North winds this morning
will increase after 14-15Z with gusts to around 20 knots through
the afternoon, before decreasing again after 21/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  46  62  40 /  30  20  10   0
Clarksville    64  43  61  38 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     62  40  56  35 /  70  30  30   0
Columbia       67  45  62  37 /  70  40  10   0
Cookeville     63  43  57  37 /  50  20  10   0
Jamestown      63  40  57  35 /  30  20  10   0
Lawrenceburg   65  45  61  38 /  60  40  20   0
Murfreesboro   67  44  62  37 /  80  30  10   0
Waverly        65  44  61  38 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Shamburger