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000
FXUS64 KOUN 211946
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
246 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A relatively cool and dry airmass is in place across the southern
Plains. With a northern wind across the western Gulf, it will be
a few days before rich Gulf moisture will return.

A clear sky is expected for the majority of the night.  This
combined with a light wind will result in rather cool to cold
temperatures by early Monday morning.  A southerly wind will return
to at least western Oklahoma this evening and overnight with an
increase in speed by sunrise.  It still appears that maybe a few
counties in south central and southeast Oklahoma will have
heavy dew with a low chance (20-30 percent) of some frost
by sunrise Monday.

A dry return flow will occur Monday with some modification to the
airmass.  Southerly surface winds will gusts to 35 to 40 mph by
afternoon, especially across northwest and north central
Oklahoma. At this time, it appears the wind will remain just below
advisory levels. The increase in wind will elevate fire weather
conditions where fuels are still more receptive to fire starts and
spread.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A cold front is expected to move across at least the northern half of
Oklahoma by late Tuesday afternoon.  Blended data has the boundary
extending from near Hollis to OKC and Chandler.  A capping inversion
will likely limit or prevent thunderstorm develop, but will maintain
low chances (mainly 20% or less).  Late evening and overnight, warm
advection above the inversion may result in scattered showers with
better chances across the northern half of Oklahoma.

The front should begin to lift northward as a warm front on
Wednesday.  This may result in areas of drizzle or light rain along
and north of the warm front. If this occurs, high temperatures
will need to be lowered across roughly the northern half of
Oklahoma.

A moderately strong low level jet may develop late Wednesday into
Thursday as a trough approaches from the west.  This should bring
better chances of showers and thunderstorms north of the warm front,
which could favor parts of northern and perhaps eastern Oklahoma.

A dryline is still forecast to take shape in the Panhandles Thursday
afternoon. Severe storms certainly seem possible as a trough is
expected to lift across the southern and central Plains late in the
day/overnight.

This system may advect enough dry air eastward that thunderstorms
will be limited to roughly the eastern half of Oklahoma on Friday.
Severe storms are possible, but the main trough should be well
north of the area.

Dryline storms appear possible Saturday and Sunday mainly during
the afternoon and evening. Severe weather is possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Skies will continue to clear this afternoon with mainly clear
skies tonight into Monday morning. North winds will become light
this evening and will shift to the south overnight before
increasing quickly Monday morning. Gusts over 20kts expected
across most sites by 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  40  70  54  80 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         39  72  52  83 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  42  71  53  82 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           40  78  54  79 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     38  73  53  79 /   0   0  10  10
Durant OK         40  69  52  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30