055
FXUS61 KRLX 020220
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1020 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend today
into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1015 PM Wednesday...

The main forecast is on track and only added in slightly more
cloud coverage due to more cirrus coming in then what was
expected.

As of 715 PM Wednesday...

The forecast remains in tact and no additional changes were
necessary at this time. Quiet weather is still expected with
just high clouds entering the area as a moisture starved cold
front, which is draped across the region just west of our CWA,
inches toward the northeast through tomorrow.

As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

Models showing a frontal boundary moving through the area this
afternoon and evening. Due to a lack of moisture however, no
precipitation is expected, only a few clouds. A high pressure
system will provide calm winds over the area tonight. Drier air
in the lower levels today will mix down and cause surface
dewpoints to drop enough such that fog shouldn`t be an issue
for most locations tonight. Light winds and dry weather will
continue on Thursday with plenty of sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

Unseasonably warm conditions continue Friday as upper level ridging
slowly works east through the region. Despite daytime highs nearly
15 degrees above normal values for this time of the year, high
temperature records should be secure.

Increasing southwesterly flow in response to the ridge axis shifting
shifting east Friday along surface low pressure transiting the Upper
Great Lakes yields an increasingly moist column late Friday
afternoon into Friday night. Precipitable water values edge up
toward 1.5 inches ahead of the approach of a cold front associated
with the aforementioned Great Lakes low Friday night. Upper level
support for this feature largely stays well to the north allowing
the front to wash out Friday night into Saturday. This will also
keep deep layer shear rather weak also yielding relatively slow
storm motions. Could potentially have some very isolated water
issues accumulate with multiple slow moving storms moving over the
same location, but given the state of vegetation and recent dry
conditions, concerns are relatively low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

A northern stream shortwave approaching late Saturday night
into Sunday morning will better focus precipitation chances, but
a modest increase in mid-level flow will also allow for faster
storm motions further limiting any threat for flash flooding.

Should see a brief break in showery activity late Sunday into early
Monday morning as transient ridging briefly builds ahead of warm
frontal passage during the day Monday bringing additional showers
and thunderstorms.

The weak flow regime comes to an end Wednesday as ridging over the
eastern half of the country shifts east allowing stronger upper
level flow to return to the region. This would yield increasing
concerns for strong to severe storms during the day Wednesday,  but
this will hinge heavily on eventual cold frontal timing.

Daytime highs remain modestly above normal values for this time of
the year, but with added Gulf influenced moisture overnight lows
will be within a few degrees of their record high minimums
overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions should prevail outside the potential for fog
tonight and into the morning. Since confidence is low on who
will fog and to what extent, decided to use model guidance to
initiate some valley fog potential overnight and for the
morning. This would affect HTS/CRW with LIFR under some heavy
valley fog. The rest of the sites may have just enough surface
flow and a large enough dewpoint depression spread to where they
will struggle to develop some fog. It may just be some patchy
fog that may or may not get into the sites. Some clouds will be
moving across the area as well, but mostly just high cirrus
from a moisture starved cold front to our west. Surface flow
should remain fairly light and variable. Any fog should lift by
13Z and then VFR would take back control through the rest of
tomorrow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may or may not occur late tonight.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 05/02/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY/JZ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JZ