Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 260655
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
255 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching occlusion brings a wetting rain today that
tapers off tonight. Drier conditions return late in the work
week courtesy of high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

A maturing, filling and occluding southern stream surface low
cutting up through Lake Superior today, and then up into south
central Canada toward Hudson Bay tonight, is likely to bring
just enough rain to qualify as a wetting rain for most, today.
The rain showers taper off tonight, as the occlusion approaches,
and then oozes into the area overnight.

More importantly, strong south to southeast low level flow
continues ahead of the system today. The wind advisory for areas
in and near the mountains continues through this morning for
gusts of 45 to perhaps 50 mph. Guidance has backed off on peak
wind gusts through this morning, with the exceptions on the HRRR
and NamDNG.

Low level flow subsides a bit further tonight, but should
remain strong enough to preclude nocturnal fog that generally
follows rain.

Recovery was poor, even non-existent, over much of the lowlands,
with RH values still in the 20s. Dew points will eventually come
up with the incoming system this morning, but likely slower
than progged. Residual elevated fire concerns could actually
persist this morning, even in the face of the incoming light
rain.

After a mild early morning, the clouds and rain should keep
temperatures from getting much if any above normal for highs
today, but lows tonight will still be above normal, with the
occlusion only oozing into the area by dawn Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

Cold front will be shoving its way eastward through the forecast
area Wednesday morning, with showers being forced against the
mountains through out the morning, and grey skies hanging around
through the day. Left some lingering chance PoPs into the afternoon
due to projected slow movement of the front as well as upslope flow
on the back side of it. Any additional rainfall amounts will be
light, around a few hundredths of an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Thursday opens shop with high pressure encroaching from the
southwest. Northerly flow will shift to a warmer, drier
southwesterly direction, with cloud cover slowly clearing from
west to east through out the day. A disturbance is being picked
up by several models and is projected to graze the coast late
Thursday, reintroducing rain chances along the mountains; some
snow showers could be possible above 4,000 feet as a result, but
accumulations will be hard pressed due to temperatures above
freezing.

Mostly dry on Friday, though winds will be breezy to gusty as
some energy on the back side of the aforementioned disturbance
moves through. The weekend holds rain chances over the area with
some moisture and energy that will have influence from the Gulf,
but currently too far out for finer details.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Strong low level southeast flow through today results in strong
surface gusts across southern sites BKW, CRW and HTS, with
lesser gusts only at times early this morning northern sites
PKB, CKB and EKN, although gusts are forecast to be more
consistent during the daylight hours today at EKN. Low level
wind shear is likely early this morning wherever surface gusts
are not occurring, which would mainly be the northern sites.
However, the southeast flow aloft may result in low level wind
shear at BKW if the surface gusts of near 40 kts there early
this morning subside to about 25 kts late this morning into this
afternoon.

Gusty south to southeast surface flow subsides a bit tonight,
which may allow low level wind shear at times at least across
the middle Ohio Valley, as moderate to strong flow aloft veers
to the southwest.

Light rain today will result in nothing more than brief MVFR
restrictions on visibility, and perhaps ceiling, this
afternoon. With the strong low level flow persisting into
tonight, fog typically associated with nocturnal rain is not
expected, although an MVFR ceiling is likely to settle into BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate, especially
through today. Brief MVFR visibility and perhaps ceiling is
possible later today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 03/26/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible overnight tonight into Wednesday
morning in and near the mountains with low stratus.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1100 PM Monday...

Low relative humidity values (teens and twenties) will slowly
recover tonight, with values of 40-70 percent by dawn on Tuesday.
Breezy to gusty southeast winds will continue tonight, especially
in/near the higher terrain with downslope flow. Wind gusts of 20-30
MPH are possible across the lowlands overnight, with 30-50 MPH gusts
possible in/near the higher terrain.

A wetting rain is expected area-wide on Tuesday. Rain progresses
west to east across the region throughout the day amid continued
breezy to gusty southeast flow. Wind gusts of 15-25 MPH are possible
area-wide, with higher gusts in/near the mountains. Relative
humidity values Tuesday afternoon bottom out in the 30-55 percent
range in/near the mountains, with higher values further west.

Isolated showers continue on Wednesday, particularly in and near the
higher terrain. Building high pressure will then bring a mainly dry
finish to the work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ015-025>027-
     034-039-515>523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM

FIRE WEATHER...GW


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