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000
FXUS61 KRNK 200653
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
253 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stretch from the coast of North Carolina to
the Gulf Coast today while high pressure stretches from the
Central Plains into the Central Appalachians. Low pressure
should develop along the frontal boundary and buckle it
northward by Sunday to bring the next chance of rain towards the
North Carolina and Virginia border. Drier weather should return
by Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 236 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Drier and breezy today.

2) Clouds increase again late tonight.


Radar is fairly quiet this morning, with main area of scattered
showers moving across the Piedmont and Sandhills of NC.

Cloud cover this morning is variable but increasing high clouds will
make for mostly cloudy skies to start, then drier air works in from
the northwest to bring increasing sunshine through the day. Front
tracks far enough south that even the NC piedmont and southside VA
should get a few hours of sunshine. There is enough of a gradient
between low pressure over SC and high pressure over the Midwest to
produce a breeze later this morning into the afternoon, so expect
some gusts in the 15 to 30 mph range, highest in the mountains.

Temperatures today will be close to normal for mid-late April with
lower to mid 70s in the Piedmont, to upper 50s to mid 60s mountains.

Northern stream trough starts to dig into the Great Lakes tonight
and at the same time a southern stream shortwave reaches the Gulf
Coast states. Will see how much buckling of the front to our south
occurs, and how far north any rain makes it by late tonight. At the
moment leaning toward drier solution but having slight chance pops
along/south of the VA/NC border across the foothills/mountains.

Cloud cover reaches most areas overnight but not before temps sink
into the 30s across the mountains, to 40s elsewhere.

Forecast confidence is average on pops/sky cover and above average
on temps/winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:
1. Cooler than normal temperatures Sunday and Monday.
2. Rain possible Sunday south of the VA border.
3. Patchy frost possible Sunday night in the mountain valleys.

By Sunday, a front will have stalled across the southeastern US,
while an area of low pressure develops along it and moves
northeastward, moving off the Carolina coast by late Sunday. This
will lead to increasing chances for rain for the south, potentially
reaching as far as the VA/NC border, where probabilities for 24 hour
rainfall accumulations exceeding a tenth of an inch by Sunday night
are around 50%. Surface high pressure will push into the area by
Sunday night, bringing an end to the rain over the area. Clouds and
rain on Sunday, and the cooler airmass that moves in will result in
below normal temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures may drop into the 30s, and to near freezing in the
west, Sunday night if cloud cover decreases. Probabilities for below
freezing temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning are between
30 to 40%, but higher in the typically colder mountain valleys, like
Burkes Garden, and higher peaks, like Mount Rogers. With calmer
winds overnight, these areas have the potential to see patchy frost
Sunday night/Monday morning.

The surface high will remain overhead through the beginning of the
work week, which will keep the weather dry through at least Tuesday
afternoon. Winds turn more southerly on Tuesday, ahead of the next
approaching system, also leading to a warming trend in temperatures,
thus highs on Tuesday will be closer to seasonal normals, in the mid
to upper 60s in the west and low 70s in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:
1. Rain chances increase on Wednesday.
2. Dry weather for Thursday and Friday.
3. Cooler low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, near normal high
temperatures.

An upper closed low will track across southern Canada and over the
Great Lakes by the middle of the work week. The surface frontal
system will move into the northeast US by Wednesday, with a cold
front extending from NY into the southern US. This front looks to
cross the central Appalachians Wednesday, bringing increased chances
for precipitation to the area. The highest probabilities for rain
are along and west of the Blue Ridge through Wednesday, although
some light rain showers are possible in the Piedmont later in the
day. Northwesterly flow behind the front may result in lingering
upslope showers in the mountains, but even those should diminish by
Wednesday night as dry and cool high pressure builds into the area.

The dry and cool surface high will build into the area from the
north, resulting in near normal high temperatures, but cool low
temperatures for the end of the work week. Overnight lows may fall
into the low 40s Wednesday night and Thursday night, with some of
the cooler valleys possibly reaching the upper 30s.

Once the upper low and trough axis moves to the east by the end of
the week, upper ridging will start to develop over the south,
downstream of more upper troughing developing in the western US.
That being said, should start to see a slight warming trend in
temperatures heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 123 AM EDT Saturday...

Rather variable cloud cover out there early this morning with
scatter to broken clouds with a mix of MVFR to VFR. Some fog
also around.

As for the terminals it`s a low confidence forecast in terms of
how low cigs/vsbys drop but enough confidence to at least have
sub-VFR in for most of the morning until drier air and winds
advect in clearing things out in the 12-18z time frame.

By late morning, 14-17z, anticipate some gusts 17-28kts,
strongest toward ROA/BCB.

Winds subside by sunset with no restrictions to ceilings/vsbys.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

An area of low pressure will buckle the frontal boundary
northward on Sunday to bring increasing cloud cover and a chance
of light rain towards the North Carolina and Virginia border.
Potential sub-VFR ceilings/vsby with light rain as far north as
KDAN, but appears most will be VFR Sunday.

Drier air should return by Monday as high pressure builds
eastward across the Mid Atlantic to provide good flying weather
through Tuesday. Another cold front will arrive during Tuesday
night into Wednesday to bring the next potential for MVFR
ceilings and rain showers in the mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PW/WP