National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KSGF 131953
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
253 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather risk this
  afternoon due to gusty winds and dry air.

- Severe thunderstorms possible Monday night and Tuesday.
  Confidence in severe thunderstorm timing and potential hazards
  remains low. Stay tuned for updates.

- Gusty winds will occur Monday through Wednesday. Strongest
  winds will occur on Tuesday with south winds gusting up to
  40-50 mph at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Elevated to locally significant fire weather concerns continue
this afternoon and early evening with SW gusts of 25-40 mph
(strongest west) and RH values of 20-30% (a few locations may
briefly drop below 20%).

Otherwise, today will see warm conditions (temps in the low to
mid 80s), but likely not record warmth (see climate section
below for records).

Sunday will see continued warmth with highs in the mid 80s.
Better chances of seeing some records, but the forecast keeps
temperatures below records at this time. Doesn`t look quite as
dry with minRH values closer to 35-45%.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Attention is on impacts from a storm system currently off the
coast of northern CA. As the system moves east, it will deepen
into a strong closed low east of the Rockies, bringing potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms and the likelihood of strong
winds, with the greatest potential for these hazards centered
on Monday night into Tuesday.

Mid 80s highs are again possible Monday, which could approach
some more record highs.

There remains uncertainty with the severe potential. Shear will
be strong and is not in question, but instability remains the
largest unknown. Thus, messaging of severe potential but low
confidence in details is on track.

As a dryline moves into central KS and OK
Monday, thunderstorms should develop but should struggle to move
east toward our area given a strong EML/cap in place. Any strong
cold pools that develop could cause that to change, but
regardless any thunderstorm chances should hold off until at
least Monday night.

That leads to considerable uncertainty going into Tuesday as the
strong low moves from W KS to IA. Flow will be very strong,
likely resulting in strong winds. Current forecast calls for
gust of 40-50+ mph with potential for gusts over 50 mph if
better mixing can be seen. With these wind fields, shear will
be strong, so if enough instability is present than severe
weather could easily result Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Seems
as though the better severe potentials will be north of the CWA
closer to the low track and south of the CWA where better
instability is more likely.

Looking a little later in the week, we should see cooler air
move into the area, but there is uncertainty with how cold that
will be. Will need to watch for frost potential late this week
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions and gusty south to southwest winds (including
overnight LLWS) will be the rule through this TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Record High Temperatures:

April 13:
KVIH: 86/2006

April 14:
KSGF: 88/1936
KJLN: 88/2006
KVIH: 87/2006
KUNO: 85/2006

April 15:
KSGF: 87/1924
KJLN: 86/2006
KVIH: 84/1955
KUNO: 84/1967


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 15:
KSGF: 63/2006

April 16:
KSGF: 66/1963

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Titus