826
FXUS64 KSHV 272326
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
626 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Very active weather should return to the region tonight, as a very
robust line of thunderstorms begins to work into our western zones
towards Sunday morning. This line will pose both a heavy rain
threat, and a severe weather threat for our entire area through
Monday evening. Given rainfall amounts the other day, and QPF
amounts expected into the new workweek, a flood watch will go into
effect Sunday morning, and remain in effect through the main heavy
rain window, with 2-4 inches of rain, and locally heavier amounts
possible.

Regarding the severe weather threat tomorrow, this is where it
gets...somewhat complicated. I hesitate to say the severe weather
threat is secondary compared to the flooding threat, because that
is certainly not the case, but the severe weather threat is very
conditional. On the flip side of that, the environment overhead is
very supportive of a severe weather threat, and I could very much
see portions of our region being upgraded into an Enhanced Risk
come tomorrow morning. It all boils down to forcing along the
boundary, and the scope of convection across the region through
tomorrow. Severe storms tomorrow would be capable of all modes of
severe weather, including embedded tornadoes along the main line.

This line of storms should exit the region by Monday evening, with
the flood watch expiring shortly behind it. However, look for a
disturbed pattern to continue into the long-term.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Disturbed pattern should remain across the region, as SW flow
quickly returns behind this trough. Rain should remain in the
forecast, before better rain chances return towards the weekend
with a small shortwave approaching the region. Additional moderate
to heavy rainfall may be possible with this system, but it
appears very progressive in nature. Regardless, look for
additional adjustments and updates to the forecast over the coming
week.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Very strong pressure gradient remains in place across our airspace
with sustained SSE winds near 12-18kts with gusts upwards of
30kts. These winds will likely continue overnight, especially
across our western most terminal locations. VFR conditions
currently prevailing but that will be changing as we move into the
late evening and overnight hours with MVFR conditions returning.
Should see ceiling recovery to most terminal locations after
sunrise Sunday Morning. Decaying broken line of thunderstorms will
be moving into our far northwest airspace by 12z Sun with the
possibility of VCTS impacting the TXK/TYR/GGG terminals by mid
morning. Convection much more likely late in the TAF period at the
above mentioned terminals so kept VCTS going at those locations
along with the LFK terminal. Other terminal impacts from TSRA
appears to occur just beyond this 00z TAF package.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  86  67  83 /  10  40 100  60
MLU  67  86  67  77 /   0  20  60  90
DEQ  66  78  61  82 /  30  90  80  20
TXK  70  83  65  81 /  20  70  90  30
ELD  67  84  63  78 /  10  40  90  80
TYR  71  81  66  83 /  40  80  80  20
GGG  72  82  66  83 /  20  70  90  30
LFK  71  84  67  85 /  10  50  90  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
     OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13