833
FXUS64 KSHV 080348
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1048 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Small evening update to increase overnight PoPs based on some
of the evening high-res guidance. This increase was also due to
the cap erosion seen on the 00z sounding.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Active weather will continue across the Four State Region through
the rest of the week with above average temperatures. This is due
to prolonged southerly surface winds maintaining moist air inflow
combined with mostly wet antecedent soils downstream, keeping dew
points in the lower 70s. Temperature maximums/minimums will reach
the lower 90s/lower 70s as a result. Precipitation will remain
possible through most of the rest of the week due to a lingering
frontal boundary that serves to focus thunderstorm activity and
key atmospheric ingredients for severe thunderstorms (large
hail/damaging winds possible) into a corridor across northeast
Texas into southern Arkansas on Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Uncertainty remains with the spatiotemporal details of
Wednesday`s convection and its magnitude across the area,
according to the latest high-resolution guidance, while Thursday
afternoon convection will occur further south of the I-20
corridor. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Frontal passage by the end of the week will provide a break in
active weather and above average temperatures through the weekend
before precipitation chances return next week. This is due to
quasi-zonal flow aloft with a weak cutoff low drifting east in
that flow across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This
low will continue to slowly drift over drier air as surface
ridging traverses the Intermountain West, finally introducing
northerly winds and seasonable temperatures (maximums in the lower
80s/minimums in the mid-60s) by Friday. Surface ridging will
quickly begin to shift east across the Mississippi River by
Sunday, reintroducing southerly surface winds and precipitation
chances by early next week. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 753 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

For the 08/00z TAF period...Currently VFR conditions across the
region. Short-term progs continue to suggest some scattered
convection will develop along a stalled frontal boundary just
north of the I-30 corridor. So, decided to add some VCTS at KTXK
between 03 and 05z this evening. Otherwise, expect MVFR, and
possibly IFR cigs to stream into the region overnight at all
sites. VFR conditions should return by the end of the TAF period,
as low cigs should lift and and maybe scatter out. Added VCTS
again at KTXK at the end of the period, as some additional
convection is expected to develop along I-30 corridor as the
stalled boundary starts to shift southward. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  91  72  89 /  10  20  40  40
MLU  73  91  72  89 /  10  10  30  40
DEQ  67  86  61  84 /  30  40  50  30
TXK  73  91  67  86 /  20  30  60  30
ELD  71  89  66  86 /  10  20  60  30
TYR  74  89  70  86 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  89  70  87 /  10  30  30  40
LFK  73  90  73  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20