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000
FXUS64 KSJT 182340
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
640 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Cold front continues to move southward across the area this
afternoon. As of the 2 PM hour, the front was already well south
of I-20 and was about to enter Tom Green county. Behind the front,
temperatures were only in the 70s in the Big Country with gusty
northerly winds. Ahead of the front, temperatures had soared into
the mid to upper 90s in the Concho Valley. It`s possible San
Angelo may touch 100 degrees before the front moves through in the
next 1-2 hours. The front should clear the I-10 corridor by the
mid evening hours. CAMs continue to develop isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening mainly
across the Heartland and northwest Hill Country. With 2000-3000
J/KG MLCAPE and around 30 knots of effective bulk shear, any storm
that does develop will have the potential to produce large hail
bigger than golf ball size and damaging winds. Coverage of storms
this evening looks low and most of us will remain dry.

Much cooler tonight behind the front, with lows dipping into the
upper 40s north of I-20 and the 50s across most of the rest of
west central Texas. Friday will be much cooler compared to today,
with highs in the 60s and 70s. Could see a few isolated storms
develop in the afternoon across the northern Edwards Plateau, but
most of us will remain dry through the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Precipitation chances ramp up even further as we head into Friday
night and Saturday. Southwest flow aloft will increase across the
area ahead of an approaching short wave over the Desert
Southwest, while low level moisture is lifted up and over the cool
post frontal airmass. Precipitable water values will climb into
the 1-1.5 inch range into Saturday, which will contribute to
locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding potential,
especially on Saturday. Mainly looking at the potential for
localized flooding of low lying areas and some street flooding.
Will maintain a high chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday
night into Saturday, with precipitation ending from west to east
Saturday night as the short wave exits the region. Temperatures
will be considerably cooler on Saturday, with highs ranging from
the 50s across the Big Country, to the low and mid 60s elsewhere.
Chilly temperatures can be expected Saturday night and again
Sunday night, with lows in the 40s.

Dry weather is expected Sunday into early next week, along with a
warming trend. Highs will in the 70s by Monday and in the 80s by
Tuesday. Low rain chances return to mainly northern sections by
mid week due to a possible weak front moving in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Currently, all sites are VFR. A cold front is moving south
through the area which has turned winds to the north at KABI and
KSJT, and will turn winds to the north at the rest of the sites
between now and 02Z. An isolated thunderstorm could approach KJCT
this evening, but confidence wasn`t high enough to mention at this
time. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop tonight
behind the cold front, generally 09Z or later, and persist through
the late morning hours Friday, before lifting to VFR heights for
the afternoon hours. Winds will remain north to northeast around
10 knots from later tonight through Friday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     51  66  53  57 /  10  10  70 100
San Angelo  55  71  57  63 /  10  10  70  90
Junction    60  75  61  68 /  30  10  50  90
Brownwood   54  69  57  62 /  20   0  70  90
Sweetwater  50  65  52  54 /   0  10  80 100
Ozona       59  75  59  67 /  10  30  70  90
Brady       58  72  60  64 /  30  10  60  90

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20