Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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939 FXUS62 KTBW 041239 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 839 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 826 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 There is more moisture in place across the area this morning. The 12z TBW sounding depicts 1.39 inches of PW. This is around a quarter of an inch more than yesterday mornings sounding. This value is also around the 75th percentile of early May PW climatology. Additionally, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s to low 70s across most of the peninsula. The broader upper level pattern features ridging across the Caribbean northwards into New England. However, there is a weak shortwave across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This weak shortwave trough will move onshore around the time of peak heating and seabreeze activity. All of the above coupled with the higher than normal PW values should lead to the best chances for showers/storms that we`ve seen in several days. Chances for showers and storms will range from as low as 20% along the coast to as high as 50% across the interior. Highs today will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s for most locations. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 VFR conditions persist across the terminals. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will develop later this afternoon (after 21z). A few of these showers/storms could impact the terminals. For now, have only mentioned VCSH at KRSW, KFMY, KPGD, and KLAL. Will continue to monitor conditions throughout the day to evaluate the need of VCTS/TSRA in the terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, with southeasterly flow turning onshore near the coast each afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge will drift south Tuesday and Wednesday, with winds becoming slightly more southerly. Wind speeds will remain below headline criteria. Rain chances will remain low, but a few sea breeze storms could drift into the waters each day during the afternoon and evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Relative humidity may briefly drop to critically low levels each afternoon this weekend, mainly over the interior. However, wind speeds are not forecast to be fast enough to cause Red Flag Conditions. Otherwise, spotty high dispersion indices will be possible each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 73 89 73 / 20 20 30 10 FMY 90 70 90 70 / 40 40 40 20 GIF 91 70 90 69 / 30 20 50 10 SRQ 89 71 89 71 / 20 20 30 10 BKV 91 65 90 65 / 20 20 40 10 SPG 87 75 87 74 / 20 30 30 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson DECISION SUPPORT...Close UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close