251
FXUS62 KTBW 102348
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
748 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Quiet but warm and humid evening ahead of the frontal boundary that
has brought stormy weather to our north. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible overnight into the early morning hours,
generally along and north of the I-4 corridor. This activity is not
expected to be severe, and only a lucky few will see any meaningful
rainfall with the activity. As the boundary drifts south through the
day on Saturday, shower and thunderstorm activity will accompany it.
But the trend of little to no rain will continue for most with rain
chances in the 20-30% range. This frontal boundary will have little
affect on the temperatures with overnight lows remaining in the
upper 60s to middle 70s tonight and tomorrows highs still reaching
into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Rather, the more noticeable affect
from the front will be the lower humidity values we will experience
over the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions this evening. Brief MVFR conditions with vicinity
thunderstorms overnight associated with the frontal passage for
northern locations. Ahead of the front early Saturday morning, low
stratus expected for sites in SWFL. Winds will turn northwesterly
behind the front with a slight westward shift during the afternoon
with onshore flow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MCS that fueled storms over north Florida (including Levy county)
this morning has continued to shift eastward, with just a few storms
remaining here and there across the peninsula. The forecast for
tonight does include a chance for another round of showers and
storms as a boundary drops southward across the area, with timing
generally after midnight and shifting southward through daybreak.
The boundary will be across the southern part of the peninsula for
the rest of Saturday, with a chance for a few showers over the
southwest Florida region only as drier air moves in to the north.

High pressure briefly builds in over the southeast for Sunday, but
is then quickly shunted eastward by another system moving through
the central U.S. Our local low-level winds will turn southeast in
response to the high moving away, allowing moisture to rapidly
return to the region early next week. Another frontal boundary will
approach the area late Tuesday before eventually stalling somewhere
across the central peninsula on Wednesday. This overall setup will
keep rain chances in the forecast each day next week, though chances
will lower some late in the week as the boundary dissipates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  89  71  90 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  77  90  69  92 /  10  30   0   0
GIF  75  94  67  92 /  20  10   0   0
SRQ  76  89  69  90 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  70  90  62  91 /  30   0   0   0
SPG  79  88  74  88 /  30  10   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION..ADavis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn