Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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140 FXUS63 KTOP 131944 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 244 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers taper off this evening and overnight. - Next rain chances arrive Wednesday into Thursday, with moderate confidence in drier conditions for the weekend. - Temperatures stay near average for the next few days, warm up for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 A well defined area of low pressure is roughly over Topeka this afternoon, with scattered showers spinning around it. Thus far haven`t seen any lightning strikes out of these showers, but there are a few hundred J/kg of CAPE present across the area. So can`t rule out a brief rumble of thunder through the evening. Heaviest rainfall continue to be in the deformation band to the north and west of the surface low, with much lighter rain near and southeast of the low center. Showers taper off during the late evening and early overnight hours as the low pulls off to the east. As a narrow ridge axis moves in behind the low, this will keep us sunny and warmer for Tuesday. Highs climb into the mid/upper 70s. After this brief break, the next upper trough approaches Wednesday into Thursday. This trough looks rather broad with several vorticity maxima moving through it, supporting several rounds of light showers. A few thunderstorms also appear possible, but again the best instability and shear for any stronger storms appears to stay to our south. Temperatures through Thursday will be dependent on cloud and precipitation coverage, though overall should stay in the low/mid 70s for highs. Heading into next weekend, a split flow pattern develops across the CONUS. Predictability of in this pattern is quite low, given several shortwaves moving through both the northern and southern streams. Overall though, it does appear slightly drier and warmer of a pattern compared to the first half of the week. NBM probabilities of high temperatures in the 80s are around 80 percent by Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Scattered showers, initially slightly greater in coverage towards KMHK this afternoon, will gradually decrease in coverage late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Ceilings have generally been VFR with some scattered MVFR thus far today, and think this should generally continue through the evening, with some more persistent MVFR ceilings possible overnight once showers taper off. These lower clouds should then exit to the east prior to sunrise. Winds become northwesterly at KTOP/KFOE over the next couple hours, remaining so for the rest of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Reese