Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 251151
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
651 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Mid-level cyclogenesis is underway across KS, in the midst of a
large and powerful upper trough moving into the Plains this
morning. At the surface, low pressure was nearly co-located with
the developing mid-level cyclone over SW KS. This low will track
east-northeast toward KC today and tonight, while a cold front
attendant to the low sweeps east across the region late today into
tonight. The current band of rain and some storms over SE OK and
NW AR will continue to shift east and exit later this morning.
Current expectation is that clouds will clear in its wake and
allow for some instability to develop by late afternoon across far
eastern OK into western AR. CAMs continue to suggest that isolated
to scattered showers and isolated storms will develop ahead of the
front in this zone. With the cold temps aloft /H5 on the order of
-20C/ any of the stronger cores could produce some marginally
 severe hail and a low tornado threat, especially across far NE
 OK into far NW AR closer to surface low where low level
 hodographs show some curvature. Finally, a few snowflakes could
 graze areas near the KS border to the north and west of Tulsa
 this evening in the wrap-around band of the strong upper system.

Colder air will be ushered into the region late today and tonight
behind the front, with overnight lows forecast to dip down into
the low to mid 30s across NE OK and NW AR. It is officially the
growing season and thus frost/freeze season as well, but
uncertainties regarding a large area of low clouds that are
expected to wrap around the low pressure system leads me to hold
off on any headlines at this time.

There were wind gusts to near 40 mph earlier at KFYV and KXNA, but
winds have since backed off and there is no expectation for winds
to strengthen back to advisory criteria. Therefore, the wind
advisory will be let go at forecast issuance this morning.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

It`s largely a quiet extended forecast in the wake of the
current system. The potential for another freeze exists across NE
OK and NW AR on Wednesday morning, but again some uncertainties
exist with low clouds as we still remain under the influence of
the central CONUS upper trough. Another wave will pass across the
southern Plains on the back side of the central CONUS trough
Wednesday, but expectations are that this system will lack
moisture and thus rain chances are too low to mention. A fast
warm-up is expected after this wave (and the larger parent trough)
passes for the end of the week on into the weekend. Low rain
chances return by early next week with a weak front.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Moderate to heavy band of rain continues to slowly move eastward
across far eastern OK and northwest AR this morning. The band of
rain moves east of the area by mid-afternoon. Brief and
intermittent VFR/MVFR ceilings/visibilities will be possible at
all TAF sites through at least the rest of the morning and
possibly into the early afternoon hours. Flying conditions should
improve to prevailing VFR as the afternoon progresses, though
forecast confidence is low at this time. A cold front will push
through the area late this afternoon and into this evening.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along the frontal boundary. Winds will veer from south to
west on the approach of the front, with gusty west winds
developing behind the front. Occasional to frequent gusts 20-25
knots will occur through the night in the front`s wake.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  35  53  31 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   68  38  56  35 / 100  30   0   0
MLC   71  36  55  33 /  60  10   0   0
BVO   71  33  52  26 /  20  10   0   0
FYV   65  33  51  28 / 100  30   0   0
BYV   62  33  49  30 / 100  30   0   0
MKO   68  35  52  31 /  70  20   0   0
MIO   67  35  49  27 /  70  30   0   0
F10   69  34  53  32 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   69  38  56  35 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67


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