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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181553
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1053 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1051 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A strong cold front... currently located along a line extending
from Kansas City through Ponca City to Wichita Falls, TX... will
continue to push SEwrd through the CWA late this morning and
through the afternoon hours. An undular bore wave was observed
advancing ahead of the front with broken skies behind this
feature. Storm coverage today will be largely influenced by the
degree of cloud clearing and resultant sfc heating, with a wide
variety of solutions offered by CAM guidance. The aforementioned
undular bore may actually help to break up the clouds as it moves
southeast well ahead of the front. Thus, currently believe clouds
will still erode enough to allow for temps to at least climb into
the upper 70s/ lower 80s for much of the area. With this in mind,
have kept PoPs in the high-end chance/ low-end likely category
this afternoon for much of E OK & NW AR... with probability of
thunder nearly equal to PoP. Regional radiosondes this morning &
forecast model soundings suggest the preceding airmass will be
capable of fostering severe weather as the front helps force
convection later today. Large hail, potentially in excess of 2",
and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph are expected to be the main
hazards with strongest storms today. While low level shear will be
lacking and low level/ sfc flow will likely be veered ahead of
the front, a non-zero tornado threat may also develop for any
storms off the boundary with a favorable storm motion.
Precipitation should move south of the FA around sunset this
evening with the primary timing for storms (and attendant severe
threat) occurring between 1PM to 7PM.

A period of gusty northerly winds will likely follow the front
this afternoon/ early evening, especially in NE OK. Gusts may
approach advisory speeds (40 mph) for a few hours... though will
hold off on issuing any headlines for now due to expected short
duration and limited coverage. May need to reconsider if gusts are
higher or more widespread than currently forecast. Otherwise,
expect early daytime highs across northern zones as temps fall
behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Much cooler weather will continue tonight through the upcoming
weekend. Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread back over the
area late Friday into Saturday night, with the majority of the
rain focused across the southern half of the forecast area. Have
trimmed back pops from the NBM, especially in the northern half of
the area, where the latest model trends suggest little or no
rainfall will likely occur.

After a dry and seasonably cool day Monday, unsettled weather will
return for the rest of next week. A weak frontal boundary will
move into the area Tuesday bringing a chance of showers and storms
at that time. Daily shower and storm chances are likely to
continue for the rest of next week, with temperatures close to the
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

MVFR ceilings prevail at all of the eastern Oklahoma sites
this morning with MVFR ceilings about to take over the western
Arkansas sites. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon in the vicinity of a cold front moving through
the region. Storms could potentially impact most sites.
Have included "TEMPO" thunder at the western Arkansas sites and
"PROB30" at the Oklahoma sites with the exception of KBVO.
MVFR ceilings are forecast to continue into the wake of the cold
front this evening and into the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  46  68  49 /  30   0  10  30
FSM   83  52  69  53 /  60  20  20  50
MLC   82  50  68  52 /  40   0  20  70
BVO   77  43  66  46 /  40   0  10  20
FYV   81  46  67  46 /  60  20  20  40
BYV   82  47  66  47 /  60  30  10  30
MKO   82  48  68  50 /  60   0  20  50
MIO   78  43  65  46 /  60   0  10  20
F10   81  48  68  50 /  30   0  20  60
HHW   83  53  66  53 /  40  40  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...10