Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 241346
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
946 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks the local area today through tonight...then
will be slow to move away from the coast Wednesday. Weak high
pressure returns by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1000 AM EDT Tuesday...

Surface low pressure is now forming over West Central SC and has
a warm front that extends ENE to near ILM NC. Ahead of the front
is a considerable rain shield that continues to push NW from the
Atlantic into the Central Appalachians with light to
occasionally moderate rain. This rain shield will continue to
make slow progress northward as it initially encounters some
drier air, which is still in place over the Northern Neck and
much of the Delmarva. But this air will saturate and the rain
will spread over this after this afternoon. The main adjustment
this period was to lower day time highs as the clouds and rain
will keep temperatures mainly steady in the mid 50s to lower
60s. Temperatures may actually climb a degree or two this
evening once the rain ends as the flow briefly turns out of the
south. Expect rain amounts of 0.50" - 1" with the rain today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Surface low will move to the coastal plain in SE VA-NE NC
tonight...w/ main axis of RA shifting to the N (after this eve).
PoPs lowering to 20-50% most areas after midnight...though
remaining 50-70% on the lower MD ern shore until late. Trough
aloft slowly tracks across the FA Wed resulting in VRB clouds-
mostly cloudy conditions w/ continuing 30-60% PoPs (SHRAS). Lows
tonight in the l50s NW to the u50s SE. Highs Wed from the u60s
NW to the l70s SE.

Lingering clouds...20-30% PoP Wed eve then drying out thereafter
Wed night. Models showing a dry/mild day Thu...though increasing
clouds possible from the SW in the afternoon ahead of developing
lo pres invof lower MS Valley. Lows Wed night from the m40s NW
to the l50s SE. Highs Thu from the u60s to l70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

A couple of s/w`s progged to round the base of the long wave trof
and pass across the srn Mid Atlantic states. Models differ a
bit with the first system late Thurs night and Fri. GFS wetter
and a bit farther north while the ECMWF has a more southerly
track with the best lift across the Carolinas. Will split the
difference and go with chc showers for now. Second one appears
to be along a weak frontal passage Sat. Limited moisture noted
here so went with slight chc late day pops for now. High
pressure builds into the area from the NW Sun into Mon.

Highs mid 60s to lwr 70s except upr 60s to mid 70s Mon. Lows mid 40s
to lwr 50s except 50 to 55 Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 645 AM EDT Tuesday...

Lowering CIGS through this morning into this afternoon (through
MVFR then IFR) as RA pushes across the FA. Steadiest RA
expected from about 13Z/24-00Z/25...lastly at SBY. Gusty SE
winds to 20-30 kt...highest near the coast...and models show
LLWS at 020 ft (btwn 40-50 KTS) at ORF/PHF/ECG after 16Z/25 as
a warm front tries to lift north. Reduced CIGS/VSBYS in
occasional -RA/FG through tonight. Flight restrictions will
likely last through ~13-16z/25 before conditions slowly improve
during the day (though SHRAS will remain possible). Winds
decrease after 00Z/25. Mainly VFR conditions late Wed through
Thu. Another round of flight restrictions due to lower CIGs and
SHRAS by late Thu night through Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 425 AM EDT Tuesday...

Early this morning, high pressure was centered well off the New
England coast, while low pressure was located over ern TN and
nrn GA. Low pressure will slowly lift ENE and acrs the area
today thru Wed. E or SE winds 10-20 kt early this morning, will
increase to 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt today into early
tonight, due to a tightening of the pressure gradient. Waves on
the Bay will build to 3-5 ft (near 6 ft at the mouth of the Bay),
and seas will build to 7-10 ft. Winds/waves/seas will diminish/subside
tonight into Wed morning, as the pressure gradient relaxes. SCAs
are currently in effect for all local waters thru this evening
or late tonight. SCAs will last thru late Wed night for the
coastal waters, due to seas remaining elevated. Also have a High
Surf Advisory in effect for OBX Currituck, as nearshore waves
expected to reach 8 ft.

Broad low pressure lifts NNE of the region late Wed/Wed evening
with SSW winds 5-15 kt, becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed
night into Thu morning. Seas over the coastal waters should
fall below 5 ft Thu morning. After a brief lull midweek, the
next low pressure system then impacts the region Fri.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ102.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>633.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/ESS
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...JDM/TMG


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