Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 211424
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1024 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather and slowly moderating
temperatures through Monday. Temperatures will reach the mid 50s
in many areas today, with 40s at higher elevations.
Temperatures will reach the 60s in the Hudson Valley by Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1024 AM EDT...Made some minor adjustments to hourly
temps/dewpoints based on current observations and trends. Raised
max temps a few degrees and lowered dewpoints slightly.

Today will be full of bright sunshine and near seasonable
temperatures, despite a chilly start to the morning. Sunny
skies, along with dry weather, will continue throughout the day
as surface high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region.

Under clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling will
allow temperatures to fall into the 20s overnight. These values
are about 10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A period of tranquil, more seasonable weather is in store
through Monday as ridging at upper levels coincides with surface
high pressure over our area. This will allow for temperatures to
moderate to near 60 degrees Sunday and into the mid 60s on
Monday, under the influence of a plentiful sunshine and a light
southerly breeze.

Temperatures Sunday night will remain on the chilly side,
falling into the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended opens with pleasant spring weather, but a coastal low
pressure system will bring unsettled weather back by the mid week,
and showery conditions will persist into Friday.

Monday Night into Tuesday...High pressure shifts off the New England
Coast with a return flow of milder air for late April.  Decent
radiational cooling Mon night will allow lows to fall back into the
30s.  Some high clouds will increase from the south and west Tue pm.
H925 temps rise to +8C to +11C.  The mid and upper level ridge axis
moves offshore.  A southern stream cyclone will be approaching from
the south. High temps will reach the lower to mid 60s in the valleys
with 50s over the higher terrain.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday...Clouds thicken and lower quickly
ahead of an inverted sfc trough extending north/northeast ahead of
coastal low pressure near the Carolinas.  The warm advection
increases quickly with chances of showers transitioning to periods
of rain on Wed. Lows fall back into the upper 30s to mid 40s.  Max
temps will be a little cooler than normal in the rain cooled air
mass with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s over the higher terrain,
and mid and upper 50s in the valleys.

Wed night into Thu...Decent agreement with the latest GEFS/ECMWF/GFS
for the upper level low combined with the slow moving coastal sfc
cyclone to continue to bring occasional showers or a period of rain
during this time. High chance/likely PoPs Wed night taper to chance
values by THU with the upper low near or over the region. Temps will
still run a little below normal.

Thu night into Friday...A lull in the showers or typical April
weather may occur here before the next system arrives from the
Great Lakes Region and the Midwest.  For consistency`s sake, a slight
or low chance of showers was kept in the forecast, although FRI may
remain dry with periods of clouds.  Temps trend back to normal to
slightly above normal April readings.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level trough will gradually shift east of the region
today into tonight. High pressure will continue to build in from
the Great Lakes region today and over the region tonight.

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours for
KGFL/KPSF/KALB/KPOU ending 12Z/SUN. The strong subsidence
associated with the ridge building in will yield partly to
mostly sunny conditions with a few-sct cirrus and a few cumulus.
These clouds will diminish by sunset.

West/northwest winds will increase to 8-12 KT during the late
morning into the afternoon with a few gusts around 20 KT near
KALB, and will become calm tonight early on.

Outlook...

Sunday to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night:Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will build into the region today and persist
through Monday night. This will allow for dry weather and near
normal temperatures to prevail through Tuesday.

Relative humidity values will drop to 30 to 55 percent both this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon, and recover to 70 to 100
percent tonight and Sunday night.

Winds will be northwest at 5 to 10 mph today, except 10 to 20
mph across the higher terrain with gusts up to 25 mph. Winds
will decrease overnight and remain less than 10 mph on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers and streams continue to slowly recede from heavier
rainfall earlier this week.

Dry weather is expected today through Tuesday with a moderating
trend in temperatures which will allow for some snowmelt in the
mountains. The next chance for widespread precipitation mainly
in the form of rain will be next Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JVM
NEAR TERM...JPV/JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...JVM
HYDROLOGY...11/JVM



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