Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 250709
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
309 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach from the southwest today into
tonight and track across our region on Thursday. The low will
lift north of the Maritimes Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong high pressure is currently moving into the Atlantic well
to the east of the Gulf of Maine. At the same time low pressure
is developing over the Carolina`s and moving northward. This low
will continue to move northward during the day today and then
across the western portion of New England late Tonight into
Thursday Morning. The low is also expected to combine with a
strong upper level low approaching the region from the west. The
system is expected to produce some heavy amounts of rainfall
across southern areas, especially coastal and interior Downeast
tonight. For QPF amounts have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and
Gfs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Thur morning expect sfc low to be centered squarely ovr New
England with fetch of deep moisture feeding into CWA. PW values wl
climb to 2-2.5 SD abv normal with progged values of 1-1.25 inches
acrs the region. Upr lvl system eventually closes off into compact
s/wv Thur morning as it heads twd coastal Maine in the aftn.
Strongest LLJ wl lkly occur acrs Downeast areas bfr the start of the
short term pd with winds aloft gradually weakening thru the day. As
compact upr lvl low and assoc cold pool rotates thru in the aftn
cannot rule out threat for thunder with elevated instability but hv
not included in fcst attm.

By 00z Fri expect s/wv wl be located along the and wl quickly eject
northeast and out of the CWA by 06z. Shwrs wl linger acrs the far
north as wv pushes east but wl gradually come to an end aft 06z.
Flow aloft bcms zonal briefly bfr quickly bcmng sw by Fri mrng. This
allows highs to climb into the 60s once again at all locations but
coastal areas where onshore flow wl keep temps in the 50s on Fri.
Clds wl increase in the aftn as next system mvs north fm the mid-
Atlantic states.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long wave trof expected acrs ern conus at the start of the long term
pd as 576dm ridge builds thru the Plains. Fri night wl feature
system mvg north out of the mid-Atlantic and spreading showers back
into the state Fri night and thru the day Sat. Showers wl wind down
fm south to north Sat night into Sunday.

Cldr temps wl filter in on Sunday in wake of cld front with H8 temps
dropping blo 0C per med range guidance. This lkly to keep temps blo
normal with highs arnd 50F acrs the north and l/m 50s for Downeast.
Not expecting much improvement on Mon as warm advection does not
kick in until evng with temps lkly warming to abv normal values once
again on Tue with hipres sitting off of the southeast coast. This
pattern wl feature upr lvl ridge along the ern seaboard thru mid-
week tho guidance diverges on amplitude of s/wv dipping into the upr
Midwest by the vry end of the pd.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expect VFR conditions today. IFR conditions expected
in all areas by late tonight.

SHORT TERM: IFR expected Thu morning into the afternoon hours at
all terminals. May see improvement to MVFR across the south late
in the day and eventually VFR in the evening. Expect improvement
across the north to MVFR toward daybreak Fri then becoming MVFR
by morning. Another round of restrictions wl move south to north
Fri evening with IFR conditions possible at BGR and BHB into Sat
morning and into northern terminals Sat afternoon before
improving to MVFR and eventually VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for
sustained winds. Currently sea surface temperature is around
41F, so winds could be further suppressed as an inversion
develops later tonight. For Waves: Currently the primary wave
system consist of southwesterly wind wave (3-4 feet/5-6 seconds.
This is expected to slowly subside during the day today,
however a new fetch will develop across the Gulf of Maine late
today into tonight and extend well into the Atlantic.
Southeasterly wind wave will build to around 8 feet/8-9 seconds
by late tonight. Total Water Level: With southerly flow
developing tonight expect ESTOFS Storm surge to perform best
with 0.70 to 1.00 surge late tonight. Astronomical tides are
well off highs of month so no coastal flooding or wave
overtopping is expected. Will increase Base Tide Anomaly to 0.80
late tomorrow as currents in Gulf of Maine are disrupted.

SHORT TERM: SCA ongoing Thu morning wl lkly need to be extended
thru the end of the week. Wind gusts wl be marginal on Thur and
then drop blo 25kts late Thu night. Expect areas of fog to
reduce visibilities Thur morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Maine Forest Service had reported numerous small fires with dry
conditions yesterday. Todays and tonight`s clouds and rain are
expected to dampen activity.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Satellite imagery and ground reports indicate little ice
remaining on the Aroostook River, but the Saint John River still
has some ice-covered areas and ice is currently moving as
evidenced by hydrographs. The ice is rotted such that it`s not
highly conducive to prolonged jamming and the threat is not
considered to be high. On the other hand, the combination of
snow melt and rainfall is generating a more tangible threat by
Thursday afternoon into Friday. With forecast QPF in northern
zones in the range around 1.00 inch, rivers such as the
Aroostook, Saint John, northern portions of the Penobscot and
Mattawamkeag will trend towards minor flooding levels. If QPF
forecasts increase for today into This evening, strong
consideration will be needed for a Flood Watch in the northern
zones...covering the aforementioned rivers as moderate flooding
becomes a risk. There`s still sufficient snow cover in northern
Aroostook to create issues...and it`s fully ripened after
today`s warmth. Melting will continue non-stop into Sunday
night. Overall, the biggest potential risk will be for the Saint
John River. Small stream flooding is possible across interior
Down east and coastal areas where highest rainfall amounts are
expected.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Mignone
Short Term...Farrar
Long Term...Farrar
Aviation...Mignone/Farrar
Marine...Mignone/Farrar
Fire Weather...Mignone
Hydrology...Mignone



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