Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 250454
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1254 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low over the Tennessee valley will slowly track east to
the mid Atlantic region by Wednesday. A cold front will cross
the local area early on Wednesday. High pressure will build
across the region Wednesday night through Thursday night before
a cold front moves east across the region on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
No significant changes for the 930 update. Rain will continue
through the overnight hours. Rain will gradually diminish from
the west overnight as low pressure over Carolinas moves off
shore. Rain should linger in the east as the low tracks north
along the eastern seaboard tomorrow.

Original discussion... Upper low currently situated over TN and
KY continues to bring consistent light rain to much of the
region. Rainfall rates are generally between a few hundredths of
an inch an hour to around one-quarter of an inch an
hour...mainly south of US 30. The short term models have been
persistent with the bulk of the precipitation falling across the
southern half of the region and steady rain becoming more
showery this evening into the overnight hours. The upper low is
forecast to shift slowly east with rain ending across the area
Wednesday morning. The one exception may be the eastern half of
the region...where showers may linger a few hours into Wednesday
afternoon.

Otherwise...below normal temperatures will persist across the
region with readings generally between 5 and 15 degrees below
normal for the end of April.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTROL THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE MAIN THING TO MONITOR WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT. THE RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
LAKE ERIE WARMING INTO THE 60S. COOL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS DIPPING BACK INTO THE 50S, A FEW 40S ACROSS
INLAND NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The last of the short waves associated with the deep northeast
trough aloft is progged to drop across the eastern Great Lakes
Saturday night. The wave is pretty far north and heights are progged
to begin rising overnight as high pressure builds at the surface and
will continue with a dry forecast. The best chance for any
radiational cooling Saturday night may be across NW OH while the
north breeze may stay up elsewhere. Lows in the 30s. A little fair
weather stratocumulus could linger NE OH/NW PA on Sunday. Highs
Sunday from the upper 40s NW PA to near 60 NW OH.

Surface high pressure will slide east of the area Monday. The ridge
aloft will continue to build. Aside from a few patches of cirrus,
Monday will be sunny. Low level moisture is progged to increase by
Tuesday although dew points will likely not be all that high. Some
fair weather cumulus is possible Tuesday.

Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday should warm as much as the mixing
and sunshine will allow. Forecast highs Monday mostly 65 to 70,
highs Tuesday well in the 70s. The wind will likely come onshore,
especially east of Cleveland on Monday and perhaps Tuesday, so a
little cooler there.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Low pressure over North carolina will turn northeast and move up
the east coast today. Moisture associated with the system has
spread light rain with MVFR and IFR restrictions across the
area. Most IFR was across western OH, west of an inverted
surface trough. Am expecting the IFR to spread east late tonight
and Wednesday morning as the trough pulls east out of the area.
Expecting a mix of MVFR and IFR Wednesday morning with
conditions lifting to MVFR most places late morning into
afternoon. Expect improvement to VFR from the west mid/late
afternoon.


OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday evening into early Thursday mainly
east.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
WINDS MAY REACH 15 KNOTS WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO GET WAVES TO 4
FEET FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT LOOKS
TO BE BRIEF SO WILL LET THE NEXT COUPLE SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT IT.
THE WEATHER THEN LOOKS QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE ON FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Riley
NEAR TERM...DJB/Riley
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Mullen


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