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000
FXUS62 KFFC 200017
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
817 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Surface boundary currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes
back through NW GA. This boundary will slowly sag southward
tonight and stall over central portions of the state through the
remainder of the short term period. Nearly zonal flow in the mid
levels will continue through the period also.

Hi-res convective models have struggled with convection over the
last few days and today is no exception. The models have been
fairly consistent with convective initiation timing, but coverage
of storms has been an issue. Earlier runs of the ARW looked better
in terms of storm coverage than the HRRR. Earlier convection east
central AL produced an outflow boundary. Convection would likely
fire in and around the outflow boundary this afternoon and
evening. Do think once convection fires, it could be more
organized than the high res models are indicating. Strong storms
are definitely possible, with isolated severe thunderstorms also
possible. The primary severe hazards would be large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

Early tomorrow looks mostly dry. Some isold/scat storms are
possible along the old frontal boundary. But, precipitation should
become more organized later in the afternoon and into the
overnight hours as a strong shortwave moves east in the mid level
flow. The atmosphere will once again be favorable for strong/isold
severe storms capable of producing hail and gusty winds.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Sunday is expected to bring scattered to widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms as a shortwave trough kicks through. PWAT
is progged to be 1.0-1.5 inches (the daily maximum per sounding
climatology is ~1.3 inches). The overnight and morning runs of the
SREF have depicted less instability across central Georgia with
200-800 J/kg of SBCAPE generally along and south of a line from
Columbus to Macon to Sandersville. Surface-to-500-mb bulk shear of
45-55 kts, along with the marginal instability, suggest the
possibility of a few strong storms with gusty to damaging winds.
SPC currently has just a General Thunder risk across this area.
Cooler, more stable air will be in place across the rest of the
forecast area, characterized by lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s
and highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s. The QPF between Saturday and
Sunday ranges from 0.5" to 0.8".

The shortwave trough is progged to move east of the forecast area
on Monday with high pressure in tow. Dry conditions will prevail
through Thursday thanks to high pressure. A relatively cooler/mild
start to the week will give way to gradually warming conditions.
Highs will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 808 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

TEMPO for TSRA remains in place this evening for ATL metro TAF
sites through 02Z. Isolated TS remain to north and west of most
sites and should begin to taper off, but some brief impacts remain
possible, even if probability is low. Some lower cloud cover may
impact metro sites in the morning hours, though confidence in
seeing BKN MVFR cigs is low enough to keep out of TAF issuance for
now. Winds will remain on west side through TAF period, 5-10 kts.
At end of 30 hr KATL TAF, introducing PROB30 for SHRA which may
impact site ahead of broader rain expected on Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium morning cigs, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  83  53  59 /  20  20  60  90
Atlanta         63  78  54  58 /  20  20  70  80
Blairsville     56  70  46  55 /  20  10  50  70
Cartersville    58  72  47  57 /  20  10  60  80
Columbus        66  83  58  64 /  10  40  70  80
Gainesville     62  79  53  57 /  20  20  60  80
Macon           66  86  58  66 /  20  40  50  90
Rome            60  71  49  59 /  20  10  50  70
Peachtree City  63  80  52  59 /  20  20  70  90
Vidalia         68  88  65  74 /  10  40  40  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...Lusk