Area Forecast Discussion
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638
FXUS61 KPBZ 231151
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
751 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure should maintain dry weather today as it slides
east. Slow moving low pressure will return rain chances tonight
through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With 7:45am update, made some minor tweaks to cloud cover
through the initial part of the forecast, as well as some tweaks
to hourly temperature trends.

Ridging should maintain dry weather today, though high clouds
should increase on the NE side of an approaching TN Valley low.
SE flow and mixing should result in high temperatures above
seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging should shift E-NE this evening as vertically stacked
low pressure slowly tracks across the TN Valley. An initial
shortwave in srly flow ahead of the low should return rain
chances this evening and tonight, though dry air in place should
initially limit this potential.

Better rain chances are expected late tonight and Tuesday with
increasing deep layer moisture and shortwave support as the low
drifts NE, despite a downsloping shallow serly low level flow.
The SE wind is expected to become gusty on the lee side of the
ridges, though model sounding progs indicate the strongest winds
capped above an inversion with gusts of 20-30 kt expected. The
upper low is expected to be absorbed by an upper trough as it
crosses the Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley region on Wed, with
rain chances continuing. Rain chances should diminish Wed night
as the trough shifts E to New England. Temperatures are expected
to be below seasonal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model ensembles and WPC progs indicate dry weather should return
for late week under weak surface high pressure. Rain chances
return as a trough advances out of the Midwest and crosses the
region late Friday through part of Saturday. Dry weather should
return through early next week as surface high pressure builds
under a NE CONUS upper trough. Below average temperatures are
expected to continue, with a return to near seasonal level early
in the week with rising heights and upper ridging.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period,
although clouds will begin to thicken and lower this afternoon
and evening. Light rain will mainly arrive after 00Z as the
initially dry low levels hinder the advance of precipitation
northward. MVFR cig and vis may finally start to arrive towards
sunrise. Wind gusts of up to 20 knots are expected areawide this
afternoon out of the southeast.

OUTLOOK...
MVFR/IFR conditions are likely Tuesday through Wednesday for
all sites with slow moving low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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