Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 232352
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
752 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure into Friday. Upper level short wave trough pulls
tropical system north out of the Gulf, to produce unsettled
weather this Memorial Day weekend and short work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 750 PM Wednesday...

Lowered lows in the valleys per MOS this clear, calm night.
Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

As of 125 PM Wednesday...

Latest satellite imagery shows low-level clouds developed and
hung around longer than anticipated. This has resulted in
temperatures a degree or so cooler. In addition, a few showers
were moving southeast into northern mountain counties at this
time.

Expect diurnal clouds and any showers will dissipate late this
afternoon with the decrease in solar heating. Guidance suggests
that tonight should be a good night for the development of
valley fog with light wind, few clouds and wet ground. Not
exactly sure how much fog will develop. However, have added fog
to the forecast, especially in favored valley locations.

After fog dissipates in the morning, do not expect much on the
way of clouds. Under abundant sunshine, temperatures should
rebound into the 80s across most lowland locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will continue to move eastward Thursday night and
Friday. As it does, it will allow moisture to return, mainly
across the SW Coal Fields and ERN KY. The chances for afternoon
showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder increase on
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will continue to move
northward and eventually head our way. Whether it becomes
tropical or not, moisture from this system will start move into
our region starting this weekend and continue into next week.
Each day chances increase for storms to develop in the afternoon
and evening hours. PWATs also increase as well, each day and
the potential for heavy downpours are possible. The possibility
for flash flooding will also increase each day as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 750 PM Wednesday...

High pressure dominates this period, with VFR conditions save
for valley fog overnight, mainly in the eastern valleys of WV,
where VLIFR dense fog is forecast.

Light north surface flow will become light and variable to calm
overnight, and then light northeast, veering to southeast in the
mountains, on Thursday. Local mountain/valley winds may trump
the prevailing winds. Light northeast flow aloft will veer to
light east overnight, and then to light southeast on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on fog overnight, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of onset, and maximum intensity, of
fog may vary overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/JS/TRM
NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...TRM



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