Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FGUS71 KOKX 151148

748 AM EST Thu Mar 15 2018

...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

This is the sixth winter/spring flood potential outlook in a series
of routine winter/spring flood potential statements intended to
provide insight into the likelihood of river flooding (not flash
flooding) over the Lower Hudson River Valley, Northeast New Jersey,
Southern Connecticut, New York City and Long Island over the next
two weeks.

This outlook is based on current assessment of Hydro-
Meteorological factors which contribute to river flooding. These
factors include recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover
and snow water equivalent, river ice, stream flow and future
weather conditions. This outlook does not address the severity of
any future river flooding.

The latest climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook valid from
March 20th through 24th suggests below normal temperatures and above
normal precipitation across the Hydrologic Service Area.
The 8 to 14 day outlook valid from March 22nd through the 28th
suggests below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation
across the Hydrologic Service Area.

Heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river
flooding. It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly
cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river
flooding potential is considered low or below normal.

Current flooding - None.

Precipitation - Precipitation departures across the Hydrologic
Service Area during the last 30 days ending on March 15th were 1 to
3 inches above normal.

Snow depth and Water equivalent - There is currently snow cover
grounds across the Lower Hudson River Valley, southern Connecticut
and eastern Long Island. With water equivalent values between 0.40
to 1 inch.

River flows - Across the local Hydrologic Service Area, rivers and
streams are running normal. Real-Time Water data can be found by
visiting the USGS at www.usgs.gov/water.

Soil moisture - Above normal. Soil moisture and drought
related data and charts can be seen at: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and

Reservoir conditions - Reservoir levels across the New York City
water supply system are 4 percent above normal. Reservoir levels
across the combined 13 Northeast New Jersey reservoirs are 10
percent above normal.

Summary - During the two week outlook period expect an active
weather pattern with below normal temperatures and above normal

For complete weather information, visit our web site at:

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The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this
office in two weeks, on March 29th, 2018.


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