Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FNUS71 KBOX 231326
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Spot Forecast for Lewis Trail...USFWS
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
926 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will be over the area during Monday morning and
then slowly drift southeast of New England Monday evening into
Tuesday.

Winds will be generally light with a southerly sea breeze
becoming established around midday.

The minimum relative humidity is expected to bottom out between 25
and 30 percent during today near the fire site.

Outlook...Will remain dry through Tuesday. Relative humidity will
recover to between 75 and 80 percent Monday night and lower to
between 40 and 50 percent on Tuesday. Winds will be light from the
south.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Dewpoint............27 decreasing to 25 in the late morning and
                    afternoon, then increasing to 29 late in the
                    afternoon.
Min apparent temp...37.
Surface winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph early.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 7 mph early.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL increasing to 1200-3100 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 6 mph shifting to the south 7 to
                    9 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1200-16200 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................9 increasing to 18 early.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............39  40  46  50  54  56  56  57  57  56  55  53
Dewpoint........25  24  23  23  23  23  24  24  25  26  27  29
RH..............62  62  49  34  30  27  29  28  29  31  34  39
Heat index (F)..37  38  45  49  54  56  56  57  57  56  55  53
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   3   5   5   6   6   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.5   5   6   6   6   6   8   9   12  12  12  12
Surface wnd dir.N   N   NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   5   5   6   6   7   7   7
Surface wnd gst.5   5   6   6   6   6   8   9   12  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.3 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.6 1.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   SE  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   6   6   6   5   5   6   7   8   8   9   9
LVORI...........3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............5   6   6   10  13  15  18  20  22  19  19  14
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4
VRate kt-ft/10001   2   3   7   9   13  14  16  16  14  13  10
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........85 percent.
Dewpoint............32 increasing to 34 around midnight.
Min apparent temp...37.
Surface winds.......South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......200-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................5.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........0            0            0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0            0            0
Temp............51           45           40
Dewpoint........30           34           34
RH..............44           65           79
Heat index (F)..51           44           40
20 FT wind......S 6G9        S 3G5        S 2G3
Surface wind....S 6G9        S 3G5        S 2G3
Mix hgt (ft)....900          300          200
Transport wind..S 8          S 5          S 3
LVORI...........2            3            4
ADI.............8            2            2
Haines index....4            5            5
VRate kt-ft/10006            1            1
Ceiling (kft)...25           25           25

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 56.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Dewpoint............35 increasing to 38 early.
Min apparent temp...37.
Surface winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (800-19100 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................8 increasing to 23 early, then decreasing to 15
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........9      20     18     21     31     39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............37     40     47     51     54     55
Dewpoint........33     34     37     38     38     39
RH..............85     79     68     61     54     55
Heat index (F)..37     40     45     51     54     55
20 ft wind......SW 2   S 2    S 5    S 7    S 8    S 8
20 ft wind gust.3      3      6      10     14     13
Surface wind....SW 2   S 2    S 5    S 7    S 8    S 8
Surface wnd gst.3      3      6      10     14     13
Mix hgt (ft)....300    400    1300   1800   1900   1400
Transport wind..SW 3   S 3    S 7    S 9    S 12   S 10
LVORI...........5      4      3      2      2      2
ADI.............4      4      11     21     27     20
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      4
VRate kt-ft/10001      1      8      15     19     13
Ceiling (kft)...25     25     25     25     25     25

$$
Forecaster...NMB
Requested by...Dave Walker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807344.0/BOX
.DELDT 04/23/18
.EMAIL david_walker@fws.gov



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