Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FNUS74 KMAF 241524 AAA
FWSMAF

Spot Forecast for Kellar...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1024 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 MDT on May 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Storms remain possible today between 2 and 7 PM otherwise temperatures will
trend higher today, but especially the next several days to follow. RHs may
briefly fall to around 25 percent today, corresponding to temperatures RHs
will trend strongly down into the weekend. Winds will mostly be terrain
dominated as free air winds are only around 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
are a concern as is the potential for lightning today. ERC percentiles are the
highest they have been in some time and it will take several days of consecutive
strong drying for fuels to return to critical levels.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Becoming partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
LAL.................3 (9-15 strikes).
Max temperature.....Around 81-85.
Min humidity........26-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South to southwest winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......13500-14000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 low.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....              TSTM   TSTM
Tstm cov........              CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      30     30
LAL.............2      3      3      3
Temp............76     79     81     83
RH..............48     37     31     28
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..9      9      9      11
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   5200   10100  13500
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      SW
Transp wind spd.3      7      10     13
Haines index....3      3      3      4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until around 7 PM.
LAL.................3 (9-15 strikes) til 7 PM then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 62-65.
Max humidity........57-61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South to southwest winds 9 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms. After 7 PM south 4
                    to 7 mph otherwise terrain dominated.
Mixing height.......12800 ft AGL decreasing to 0-200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 low.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent til 7 PM. 5 percent after 7 PM.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY     PCLDY     MCLEAR    MCLEAR
Weather cov.....CHANCE    NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....TSTM
Tstm cov........CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).30        5         5         5
LAL.............3         1         1         1
Temp............80        73        69        66
RH..............32        42        47        50
20 FT wind dir..SE        S         S         S
20 FT wind spd..17        6         7         6
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....12800     1000      700       BLW100
Transp wind dir.SW        S         S         S
Transp wind spd.12        10        10        6
Haines index....5         4         5         5

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 91-94.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL increasing to 10300-12200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR low to moderate.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR     CLEAR     MCLEAR    MCLEAR
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............66        77        89        93
RH..............52        32        18        10
20 FT wind dir..SW        SW        SW        SW
20 FT wind spd..16        15        13        15
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100    1600      10300     12100
Transp wind dir.SW        SW        SW        W
Transp wind spd.14        7         10        13
Haines index....5         5         4         5


$$
Forecaster...Murdoch
Requested by...Jared Strahorn
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1810515.3/MAF
.DELDT 05/24/18


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