Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 221117
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Coffee Pot...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
717 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

.TODAY...

High pressure will stay anchored from the Great Lakes to the
Middle Atlantic through tonight, while low pressure shifts from
Arkansas to eastern Tennessee. This low will then track over the
Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This system will bring widespread rain
and below normal temperatures to the Mid Atlantic region the first
half of this week.

Rainfall amounts from Monday morning through Wednesday morning
will be one to one and half inches. Rain is expected to begin at
the site between 2 and 4PM on Monday.


Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph early in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......increasing to 6200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 2 to 10 mph increasing to around 12 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 increasing to 38.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........81  77  78  79  80  81  84  86  86
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............49  53  57  59  61  63  64  66  67
RH..............42  40  37  37  38  37  36  34  34
20 FT wind dir..NE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..1   1   2   3   4   5   5   6   6
20 FT wind gust.    2       4   5   6   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.0 2.5 3.3 4.1 4.8 5.3 5.7 6.2
Mixng wind dir..SE  S   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
Mixng wind spd..3   6   7   8   9   10  12  12  12
LVORI...........3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1
ADI.............7   13  20  28  27  32  35  36  38
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 5 to 14 mph.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................40 decreasing to 6.
Haines Index........2 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........79     63     58     55     53     50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............65     60     57     53     51     49
RH..............36     45     52     60     65     67
20 ft wind......S 5    S 3    E 2    E 1    E 2    E 3
20 ft wind gust.6      4             2             4
Mix hgt (ft)....5400   3800   2000   800    500    800
Mixing wind.....S 13   S 14   SE 8   SE 6   SE 6   SE 7
LVORI...........1      2      2      3      3      3
ADI.............40     6      4      2      2      3
Haines index....3      4      3      3      2      2

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    late in the morning. Chance of rain early in
                    the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph with
                    gusts to around 17 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL increasing to 4800 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Mixing winds........Southeast 8 to 16 mph increasing to around 30
                    mph.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................4 increasing to 89.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........47     50     59     73     88     92
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      10     20     30     40
Temp............47     47     53     56     58     58
RH..............71     69     63     58     54     57
20 ft wind......NE 3   E 5    SE 7   SE 9   SE 9   SE 8
20 ft wind gust.4      7      11     17     17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   1600   2700   3300   3500   4300
Mixing wind......SE 8   SE 12  SE 16  SE 18  SE 18  SE 25
LVORI...........3      3      1      1      1      1
ADI.............4      23     50     46     46     74
Haines index....2      3      2      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...Silverman
Requested by...Nick Jeros
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807163.4/RNK
.DELDT 04/22/18



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