Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 230441
SWODY2
SPC AC 230440

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley.

...Northern/Central Plains/Upper MS Valley...

Great Basin short-wave trough will eject into eastern MT Wednesday
morning then translate into the eastern Dakotas by early evening.
While mid-level flow is not forecast to be particularly strong, weak
height falls and modest shear is expected to spread across the upper
Red River Valley ahead of this feature. Models continue to suggest
strong boundary-layer heating will be noted across the
northern/central Plains along a dry line that should extend from
eastern ND into southwest NE at 25/00z. Forecast soundings along
this boundary do not exhibit meaningful inhibition thus convective
temperatures should easily be breached by 22-23z. As a result,
isolated thunderstorms will develop along/east of the dry line
within a sheared regime that should support multi-cell clusters, and
perhaps a weak supercell or two, especially across the SLGT risk
region. Hail/wind are the primary threats with this steep-lapse rate
convection. One or more thunderstorms clusters should spread into
the upper MS Valley during the overnight hours as LLJ strengthens
over MN after sunset.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     15%     - Slight

..Darrow.. 05/23/2018

$$


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