National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
ACUS03 KWNS 160727
SWODY3
SPC AC 160726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
REGION NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail
will be possible Thursday from parts of Texas northeastward toward
the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen over western Ontario on Thursday as a broad
upper trough moves eastward across the northern Plains, upper MS
Valley and upper Great Lakes. An extensive and tight midlevel
temperature gradient will exist, with the core of the strongest
midlevel winds from WY across NE and into WI and Upper MI.

At the surface, a prominent cold front will continue southward
across the Plains, reaching central TX by afternoon, and extending
northeastward across the Ozarks and into IL and IN by 00Z. A weak
low/trough will exist from OK/TX toward IN ahead of the front, with
perhaps a wave or two translating northeastward along the boundary.

Ahead of the cold front and in advance of the northern trough,
southwest winds around 850 mb will aid theta-e advection across the
Mid/Lower MS Valley and across the OH Valley, with speeds around 30
kt likely. Dewpoints of 60-65 F will be common ahead of the front
from IN southwestward, with values near 70 F from TX into AR.
Favorable instability for strong to severe storms may exist along
the length of the boundary, but threat corridors are uncertain at
time given differences in model output.

...Northeast TX/Eastern OK to the Ohio Valley...
An expansive area of moisture and instability will favor
thunderstorms on Thursday, through shear will be weak over southern
areas. Substantial model differences exist regarding favored areas
of severe storm threat, but the northern extent of the stronger
instability may support relatively greater potential closer to the
upper trough. Overall, the most favorable combination of lift,
instability and shear looks to be roughly from the ArkLaTex into
southern IL/IN. A capping inversion may suppress development until
peak heating over southern areas, while northern areas develop a bit
earlier in the afternoon. Both hail and wind are anticipated.

..Jewell.. 04/16/2024

$$