Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
203 FXUS65 KVEF 010301 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 801 PM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Another day of warm temperatures, mostly clear skies, and afternoon breezes today before a weather system briefly moderates temperatures and returns gusty north-northwest winds to the forecast area. Temperatures will warm once again through the remainder of the work week before another weather system approaches late weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE...A cold front approaching from the north is forecast to bring gusty northerly winds to Esmeralda, Inyo, and parts of Nye and western Lincoln counties tonight. Widespread 25 to 35 mph gusts are expected across these areas with localized gusts over 40 mph possible, mainly in Inyo County. The highest concern will be in the Bishop area and along the Owens Valley where gusts could approach or exceed advisory level at times after midnight. The question is whether gusts above 40 mph will be widespread enough or last long enough to warrant a wind headline. For Las Vegas, the cold front is forecast to reach the valley after daybreak with gusts in the 20-30 mph range over the northwest and western parts of the valley. Elsewhere, expect gusty westerly winds to continue over the western and central parts of San Bernardino County through the evening hours before decreasing overnight. We will be closely monitoring winds tonight but at this time, no updates to the forecast are needed. && .PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024... .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Mostly sunny skies and above-average temperatures continue this afternoon. Breezy winds expected across the area as weak disturbances pass through the forecast area along our dry northwesterly flow aloft. On Wednesday, temperatures will drop back toward seasonal averages and gusty north-northwest winds will pick up as a result of a closed low pushing through the Intermountain West and Great Basin. This system will be dry, meaning no precipitation is expected for our forecast area. This wind will then concentrate along the Colorado River Valley on Thursday, resulting in the strongest winds from Laughlin / Bullhead City to Needles as well as hazardous boating conditions at Lake Mohave. .LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday. Warm and dry conditions continue for the end of the work week into the weekend with above-average high temperatures and single-digit afternoon relative humidities for the entire forecast area. Uncertainty continues in the long term, though this is better illustrated by the NBM this afternoon. On Sunday, the Deterministic NBM shows a drop in temperatures to 8-10 degrees below seasonal averages. For Las Vegas, the 25th percentile shows a high temperature of 72F and a 75th percentile of 82F on Sunday. There remains intermodel uncertainty regarding the depth, speed, and location of a closed low as it pushes into the north-central West Coast. The GFS ensemble means continue to indicate that the center of the low will push through southern Nevada, resulting in widespread rainfall, while the ECMWF ensemble means continue to indicate that the center of the low will remain a bit further north as more of Great Basin show. The ECMWF solution still increases PoPs for our forecast area, but they`re focused in our northern zones including northern Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye, and Lincoln counties. Will continue to work out details regarding this weekend`s system through the week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds favoring a northeast-to- east direction will gradually rotate around to the southwest by late afternoon. While occasional gusts to 15kts may be experienced while the winds are from the east or southeast early this afternoon, most of the gustiness is not expected until after becoming more southwesterly. Light winds return by late evening. Wednesday morning, gusty northwest winds are expected to develop after 15Z as a disturbance moves into the Great Basin. VFR conditions persist through Wednesday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Most regional TAF sites will see southwest-to-west winds with gusts to 20kts this afternoon and early evening. KBIH will be the exception where northwest to north winds of less than 20kts are expected into this evening. Lighter winds are forecast overnight, followed by gusty northerly winds developing Wednesday morning. Besides a few clouds AOA 10kft AGL along the Sierra, mainly clear skies are expected through the TAF period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Salmen DISCUSSION...Varian AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter